SummaryBackgroundOne of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes.MethodsWe pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence—defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs—in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.FindingsWe used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4–7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2–11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9–7·9) to 7·9% (6·4–9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target.InterpretationSince 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.FundingWellcome Trust.

Dietary exposure to aflatoxins is one of the major risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma. Individual susceptibility to aflatoxin-induced hepatocarcinogenesis may be modulated by both genetic and environmental factors affecting metabolism. A cross-sectional study was performed to evaluate determinants of the formation of aflatoxin covalently bound to albumin (AFB 1 -albumin adducts). A total of 474 subjects who were free of liver cancer and cirrhosis and were initially selected as controls for previous case -control studies of aflatoxin-induced hepatocarcinogenesis in Taiwan, were employed in this study. Aflatoxin-albumin adducts were determined by competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, hepatitis B surface antigen and antibodies to hepatitis C virus by enzyme immunoassay, as well as genotypes of glutathione S-transferase M1-1 and T1-1 by polymerase chain reaction. The detection rate of AFB 1 -albumin adducts was significantly higher in males (42.5%) than in females (21.6%) (multivariate-adjusted odds ratio=2.6, 95% confidence interval=1.4 -5.0). The formation of detectable albumin adducts was moderately higher in hepatitis B surface antigen carriers (42.8%) than in non-carriers (36.6%) (multivariate-adjusted odds ratio=1.4, 95% confidence interval=1.0 -2.1). In addition, the detection rate of AFB 1 -albumin adducts tended to increase with the increasing number of null genotypes of glutathione S-transferase M1-1 and glutathione Stransferase T1-1. In conclusion, this cross-sectional study has assessed the relative contributions of environmental exposure and host susceptibility factors in the formation of AFB 1 -albumin adducts in a well characterised Chinese adult population. This study further emphasises the necessity to reduce aflatoxin exposure in people living in an area endemic for chronic hepatitis B virus infection.

This nested case-control study evaluated the role of polymorphisms in the myeloperoxidase (MPO) and catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) genes that modulate oxidative stress in breast cancer risk in a Chinese population. Our results demonstrate that the MPO A/A genotype was associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer (odds ratio (OR) 0.64; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.11-3.76), whereas there was no overall association of COMT genotype with breast cancer. Of note, an elevated breast cancer risk associated with the increasing numbers of high-risk genotypes of MPO and COMT genes was observed in women with a longer duration between menarche and first full-term pregnancy.

Background The role of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection in the development of colorectal neoplasia has been a matter of scientific debate with controversial findings. Aims This study examined the association between H. pylori infection and colorectal cancer (CRC) in a nationwide population-based Chinese cohort study. Methods A total of approximately 3936 individuals with newly diagnosed H. pylori infection (the H. pylori-infected cohort) and 15 744 age- and sex-matched patients with diagnoses absence of H. pylori infection (the comparison cohort) from 2000 to 2005 were identified from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database. The Kaplan–Meier method was used for measuring the cumulative incidence of CRC in each cohort. Cox proportional hazards models were used to compute hazard ratios (HRs) and accompanying 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the estimation of the association between H. pylori infection and CRC. Results The cumulative incidence of CRC was higher in H. pylori-infected cohort than that in the comparison cohort (log-rank test, P < 0.001). After adjustment for potential confounders, H. pylori infection was associated with a significantly increased risk of CRC (adjusted HR 1.87; 95% CI 1.37–2.57). In addition, the HR of CRC appeared to increase with increasing frequency of clinical visits for H. pylori infection. Conclusions Our study demonstrated that H. pylori infection was associated with an increased risk of CRC, which warrants confirmation and exploration of the underlying biologic mechanisms by future studies.

Limited evidence is available on the risk differences in the development of stroke subtypes in relation to particular clustering patterns of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) components. A follow-up study of a Chinese cohort involving 10,292 individuals was performed to assess the roles of cluster patterns of the MetS components in the prediction of incident stroke subtypes. During follow-up, there were 161 incident cases of ischemic strokes and 41 incident cases of hemorrhagic strokes. Among MetS components, only the hypertensive trait was associated with significantly elevated risks of both ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. Furthermore, MetS with hypertension as components was associated with increased risk of ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes (adjusted hazards ratio (95% confidence interval) was 2.96 (1.94-4.50) and 2.93 (1.25-6.90), respectively) as compared with those who had neither hypertension nor MetS. Notably, as the number of the MetS components increased, the risk of ischemic stroke significantly and dose-dependently increased. This implies a cumulative effect of MetS components in elevating the risk of ischemic stroke. These findings suggest that MetS comprises heterogenous clusters with respect to the risk of developing the subtype of stroke.