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This paper uses statistics on agricultural productivity compiled by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service to test the productivity slowdown hypothesis. The indexes of productivity growth span the years 1948 to 2009. In our analysis, we apply econometric techniques that allow for multiple structural breaks at unknown points in time and in various forms. The tests identify a break in trend in 1974 and an intercept shift in 1985. These results point to slower productivity growth in agriculture beginning in 1974. Prior to 1974, productivity grew at an annual rate of 1.71%, but this slowed to 1.56% after 1974. This slower rate of productivity growth persisted after the intercept shift in 1985 but from a higher absolute level of productivity.

This article is drawn from Productivity Growth in Agriculture: An International Perspective, edited by Fuglie, Wang, and Ball. It is a review of agricultural productivity around the world, with an analysis of prices, population, and productivity over the past 50 years. In developing and transition countries, agricultural productivity growth has been found to be strong over the past 10 years. Developed countries have also experienced robust agricultural total factor productivity growth, though it is now slowing in many countries.