Sea-level rise will affect coastal species worldwide, but models that aim to predict these effects are typically based on simple measures of sea level that do not capture its inherent complexity, especially variation over timescales shorter than 1 year. Coastal species might be most affected, however, by floods that exceed a critical threshold. The frequency and duration of such floods may be more important to population dynamics than mean measures of sea level. In particular, the potential for changes in the frequency and duration of flooding events to result in nonlinear population responses or biological thresholds merits further research, but may require that models incorporate greater resolution in sea level than is typically used. We created population simulations for a threatened songbird, the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus), in a region where sea level is predictable with high accuracy and precision. We show that incorporating the timing of semidiurnal high tide events throughout the breeding season, including how this timing is affected by mean sea-level rise, predicts a reproductive threshold that is likely to cause a rapid demographic shift. This shift is likely to threaten the persistence of saltmarsh sparrows beyond 2060 and could cause extinction as soon as 2035. Neither extinction date nor the population trajectory was sensitive to the emissions scenarios underlying sea-level projections, as most of the population decline occurred before scenarios diverge. Our results suggest that the variation and complexity of climate-driven variables could be important for understanding the potential responses of coastal species to sea-level rise, especially for species that rely on coastal areas for reproduction.

Tidal marshes are among the most threatened habitats on Earth because of their limited natural extent, a long history of human drainage and modification, and anticipated future sea‐level rise. Tidal marshes also provide services to humans and support species of high conservation interest. Consequently, millions of dollars have been spent on tidal marsh restoration throughout North America. Southern New England has a long history of tidal marsh restorations, often focused on removal of the invasive plant Phragmites australis. Working in 18 Connecticut marshes, we examined the bird community in 21 plots in restoration sites and 19 plots in reference sites. Restoration plots were divided into those in marshes where management involved restoring tidal flow and those where direct Phragmites control (e.g. cutting, herbicide) was used. Saltmarsh sparrows Ammodramus caudacutus, which are considered globally vulnerable to extinction, were less common where tidal flow had been restored than at reference sites and nested in only one of 14 tidal‐flow restoration plots. No abundance differences were found for large wading birds, willets Tringa semipalmata, or seaside sparrows Ammodramus maritimus. Vegetation at sites where tidal flow had been restored showed characteristics typical of lower‐elevation marsh, which is unsuitable for nesting saltmarsh sparrows. We conclude that, although tidal‐flow restorations in Connecticut control Phragmites and restore native saltmarsh vegetation, they produce conditions that are largely unsuitable for one of the highest conservation priority species found in eastern U.S. salt marshes.

The San Clemente Bell’s Sparrow (Artemisiospiza belli clementeae) is a federally threatened subspecies endemic to San Clemente Island, California. Previous research suggested dependence on boxthorn (Lycium californicum) as breeding habitat and nesting substrate; however, this conclusion was based on data collected when introduced feral ungulates had severely degraded the soil and vegetation cover. Since removal of the ungulates, native vegetation has gradually increased and the San Clemente Bell’s Sparrows have expanded into areas where habitat had been unsuitable. To explore how Bell’s Sparrows use these areas, we examined reproductive metrics associated with habitat covariates gathered at 214 nest sites used by Bell’s Sparrows from 2014 to 2016. We found that nest success in boxthorn habitat, previously considered an essential habitat for Bell’s Sparrow nesting, was similar to success in alternative habitat types. Our findings contradict previous conclusions that Bell’s Sparrows were boxthorn-dependent. We believe this previously documented relationship was likely due to the lack of available alternative nesting habitat following years of feral ungulate degradation, and Bell’s Sparrows now reproduce in multiple habitat types and throughout most of San Clemente Island. Furthermore, our findings illustrate the importance of long-term monitoring and corresponding adaptive management when monitoring species in changing and recovering landscapes.

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