A key decision in field management is whether or not to acquire information to either improve project economics or reduce uncertainties. A widely spread technique to quantify the gain of information acquisition is Value of Information (VoI). However, estimating the possible outcomes of future information without the data is a complex task. While traditional VoI estimates are based on a single average value, the Chance of Success (CoS) methodology works as a diagnostic tool, estimating a range of possible outcomes that vary because of reservoir uncertainties. The objective of this work is to estimate the CoS of a 4D seismic before having the data, applied to a complex real case (Norne field). The objective is to assist the decision of whether, or not, to acquire further data. The methodology comprises the following steps: uncertainty quantification, selection of Representative Models (RMs), estimation of the acquisition period, production strategy optimization and, finally, quantification of the CoS. The estimates use numerical reservoir simulation, economic analysis, and uncertainty evaluation. We performed analyses considering perfect and imperfect information. We aim to verify the increment in economic return when the 4D data identifies the closest-to-reality reservoir model. While the traditional expected VoI calculation provides only an average value, this methodology has the advantage of considering the increase in the economic return due to reservoir uncertainties, characterized by different RMs. Our results showed that decreased reliability of information affected the decision of which production strategy to select. In our case, information reliability less than 70% is insufficient to change the perception of the uncertain reservoir and consequently decisions. Furthermore, when the reliability reached around 50%, the information lost value, as the economic return became similar to that of the case without information acquisition.

In greenfield projects, robust well placement optimization under different scenarios of uncertainty technically requires hundreds to thousands of evaluations to be processed by a flow simulator. However, the simulation process for so many evaluations can be computationally expensive. Hence, simulation runs are generally applied over a small subset of scenarios called representative scenarios (RS) approximately showing the statistical features of the full ensemble. In this work, we evaluated two workflows for robust well placement optimization using the selection of (1) representative geostatistical realizations (RGR) under geological uncertainties (Workflow A), and (2) representative (simulation) models (RM) under the combination of geological and reservoir (dynamic) uncertainties (Workflow B). In both workflows, an existing RS selection technique was used by measuring the mismatches between the cumulative distribution of multiple simulation outputs from the subset and the full ensemble. We applied the Iterative Discretized Latin Hypercube (IDLHC) to optimize the well placements using the RS sets selected from each workflow and maximizing the expected monetary value (EMV) as the objective function. We evaluated the workflows in terms of (1) representativeness of the RS in different production strategies, (2) quality of the defined robust strategies, and (3) computational costs. To obtain and validate the results, we employed the synthetic UNISIM-II-D-BO benchmark case with uncertain variables and the reference fine- grid model, UNISIM-II-R, which works as a real case. This work investigated the overall impacts of the robust well placement optimization workflows considering uncertain scenarios and application on the reference model. Additionally, we highlighted and evaluated the importance of geological and dynamic uncertainties in the RS selection for efficient robust well placement optimization.

Fractured carbonate reservoirs are typically modeled in a system of dual-porosity and dual-permeability (DP/DP), where fractures, vugs, karsts and rock matrix are represented in different domains. The DP/DP modeling allows for a more accurate reservoir description but implies a higher computational cost than the single-porosity and single-permeability (SP/SP) approach. The time may be a limitation for cases that require many simulations, such as production optimization under uncertainty. This computational cost is more challenging when we couple DPDP models with compositional fluid models, such as in the case of fractured light-oil reservoirs where the production strategy accounts for water-alternating-gas (WAG) injection. In this context, low fidelity models (LFM) can be an interesting alternative for initial studies. This work shows the potential of compositional single-porosity and single-permeability models based on pseudo-properties (SP/SP-P) as LFM applied to a fractured benchmark carbonate reservoir, subject to WAG-CO2 injection and gas recycle. Two workflows are proposed to assist the construction of SP-P models for studies based on (i) nominal approach and (ii) probabilistic approach of reservoir properties. Both workflows begin with a parametrization step, in which the pseudo-properties are optimized for a base case in order to minimize the mismatch between forecasts of the SP/SP-P and DP/DP models. The new parametrization methods proposed in this work showed to be viable for the construction of the SP/SP-P models. For studies under uncertainties, the workflow proposes obtaining pseudo-properties by robust optimizations based on representative models from a DP/DP ensemble, which proved to be an effective method. The case study is the benchmark UNISIM-II-D-CO with an ensemble of 197 DP/DP models and two different production strategies. The risk curves for production, injection and economic indicators obtained from DP/DP and SP/SP-P ensembles showed good match and the computational time spent on simulations of the SP/SP-P ensemble was 81% faster than DP/DP models, on average. Finally, the responses obtained from both ensembles were validated in a reference model (UNISIM-II-R) that represents the true response and is not part of the ensemble. The results indicate the SP/SP-P modeling as a good LFM for preliminary assessments of highly time-consuming studies. Besides, the workflows proposed in this work can be very useful for assisting the construction of SP/SP-P models for different case studies. However, we recommend the use of the high-fidelity models to support the final decision.

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The Expected Value of Information (EVoI) is a criterion to analyze the feasibility of acquiring new information to deal with uncertainties and improve decisions at any stage of an oil field. Here, we evaluate the influence of the use of representative models (RM) on the EVoI estimation and on the decision to develop the petroleum field. These RM are used to represent a large set of models that honor production data (FM), considering uncertainties in reservoir, fluid and economic parameters, enabling the following processes: (1) optimize production strategies (specialized for each RM and robust to all RM), (2) risk analysis, (3) select the strategy to develop the field based on risk analysis, and (4) estimate the EVoI. We evaluated the influence of the number of RM on these processes, observing the impacts on the results of reducing computational costs. For the EVoI, we applied a Complete (EVoI_FM) and a Simplified (EVoI_RM) methodology, where EVoI_FM was evaluated with all models (FM) while EVoI_RM used different groups with different numbers of RM (GR1, GR2 and GR3, ranging from 9 to 150 models in each group). To assess the quality of the results, we used the complete estimate (EVoI_FM) as a reference. The study was conducted on UNISIM-I-D, a benchmark oil reservoir in the development phase, taking an appraisal well as a source of information to clarify a structural uncertainty. Using RM to optimize specialized production strategies proved useful, since optimizing strategies for all FM would require high computational costs. Moreover, the RM could be used to represent risk curves and select production strategies under uncertainty, but less precisely, affecting directly the results of the EVoI (which is the difference between the expected values of the two curves). The precision of EVoI_RM results varied according to the number and group of RM employed, also varying the best strategies selected for field development. The choice of using simplifications or not will depend on the accuracy required or available resources. Variations in EVoI_RM may be tolerable when compared to the time saved, being the decision maker free for choosing the best estimation method.