Old field secondary succession of tropical dry forests (TDFs) is poorly understood, particularly regarding the dynamics of seedlings, saplings, and sprouts (regenerative communities). We used chronosequence and dynamic approaches to: (1) document successional trajectories of regenerative communities during the first dozen years of regeneration in abandoned pastures at Chamela, Mexico; (2) test the usefulness of chronosequences to predict the dynamics of regenerative communities along time; and (3) assess the influence of surrounding forest matrix, stand density, and understory light availability (in the rainy season) as driving factors of such dynamics. More than 1000 plants and 95 species of shrubs and trees 10-100 cm tall were monitored between 2004 and 2007 in nine abandoned pastures (0-12 yr since abandonment) and two old-growth forest (OGF) sites; gain and loss rates of plants, species, and plant cover were obtained. Chronosequence predicted a rapid and asymptotic increase of plant density, species density, and plant cover toward the OGF values. Such prediction did not match with dynamic data that showed negative or neutral net community rates of change, independently of fallow age. Recruitment and species gain rates increased with the amount surrounding forest matrix. No other effect of the explored factors was detected. Strong rainfall shortenings could be responsible for the high loss and low gain rates of plants and species recorded in most sites. We highlight the critical role of supra-annual rainfall variability on the dynamics of TDF regenerative communities and the poor predictive value of chronosequences in forest systems subjected to strong environmental temporal variation.Abstract in Spanish is available at http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/loi/btp.

The effects of temporal variation of rainfall on secondary succession of tropical dry ecosystems are poorly understood. We studied effects of inter-seasonal and inter-year rainfall variation on the dynamics of regenerative successional communities of a tropical dry forest in Mexico. We emphasized the effects caused by the severe El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurred in 2005. We established permanent plots in sites representing a chronosequence of Pasture (abandoned pastures, 0–1 years fallow age), Early (3–5), Intermediate (8–12), and Old-Growth Forest categories (n = 3 per category). In total, 8210 shrubs and trees 10 to 100-cm height were identified, measured, and monitored over four years. Rates of plant recruitment, growth and mortality, and gain and loss of species were quantified per season (dry vs. rainy), year, and successional category, considering whole communities and separating seedlings from sprouts and shrubs from trees. Community rates changed with rainfall variation without almost any effect of successional stage. Mortality and species loss rates peaked during the ENSO year and the following year; however, after two rainy years mortality peaked in the rainy season. Such changes could result from the severe drought in the ENSO year, and of the outbreak of biotic agents during the following rainy years. Growth, recruitment and species gain rates were higher in the rainy season but they were significantly reduced after the ENSO year. Seedlings exhibited higher recruitment and mortality rate than sprouts, and shrubs showed higher recruitment than trees. ENSO strongly impacted both the dynamics and trajectory of succession, creating transient fluctuations in the abundance and species richness of the communities. Overall, there was a net decline in plant and species density in most successional stages along the years. Therefore, strong drought events have critical consequences for regeneration dynamics, delaying the successional process and modifying the resilience of these systems.

The cycad Ceratozamia mirandae is endemic to Chiapas, Mexico. Demographic studies were made in two of its populations in the Sepultura Biosphere Reserve under different conservation conditions; in the nucleus zone ''Tres Picos'' (conserved) and buffer zone ''La Sombra'' (disturbed and under management). Spatial distribution of C. mirandae was aggregated, showed a clumped local distribution on shallow soils on steep slopes and male and female cones appear to be synchronous in both populations. The population structure was of type I (Bongers) for both sites. Individuals between the sites showed differences in growth pattern. The oldest plants (80-90 cm tall) were estimated to be about 490 years at ''La Sombra''. The finite growth rate (k) in the buffer zone population showed a tendency for decrease whilst in the nucleus zone this estimate remained stable. The highest elasticity values lied in the transition of the first three classes of the ''La Sombra'' population, in ''Tres Picos'' this corresponded to adult plants between 20 and 30 cm tall. Given the above, it is proposed that in the nucleus zone, reproductive adults should be of highest conservation priority, whereas in the buffer zone seedling reintroduction should be carried out regularly until the population increases. We recommend an IUCN Red List category of Vulnerable (VU C, 2a), largely due to difficult-to-control destructive annual forest fires that occur in this Reserve.

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Abstract:A chronosequence was used to study seed-bank communities during the first 12 y of tropical-dry-forest regeneration in abandoned pastures in Chamela, Mexico. Prediction that seeds of woody species replace those of herbaceous species during succession was tested and mechanisms of species replacement (facilitation, tolerance, inhibition) were assessed. Four successional categories (three sites each) were considered: pasture (0–1 y since abandonment), early (3–5 y), intermediate (10–12 y), and old-growth forest. At the end of the dry season, 20 cylindrical soil samples (10 cm diameter, 15 cm depth) were randomly obtained within a 20 × 50-m plot in each site. Seeds ≥1 mm were counted and identified. Overall, 2941 seeds and 102 morphospecies (52 taxonomically identified) were recorded. Seed bank density reduced, species diversity remained fairly constant and seeds of herbaceous species were replaced by those of woody species over the chronosequence. A clear species-by-species replacement pattern was detected, as expected under a mechanism of succession by facilitation. Twelve years after abandonment, a diverse seed bank of woody species did exist, indicating a fast recovery of the tropical-dry-forest regenerative potential; nonetheless, the structure and composition of the seed bank was still different from that in the old-growth forest.