Objective To evaluate the extent to which circulating biomarker and supplements of vitamin D are associated with mortality from cardiovascular, cancer, or other conditions, under various circumstances.Design Systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies and randomised controlled trials.Data sources Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library, and reference lists of relevant studies to August 2013; correspondance with investigators. Study selectionObservational cohort studies and randomised controlled trials in adults, which reported associations between vitamin D (measured as circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration or vitamin D supplement given singly) and cause specific mortality outcomes.Data extraction Data were extracted by two independent investigators, and a consensus was reached with involvement of a third. Study specific relative risks from 73 cohort studies (849 412 participants) and 22 randomised controlled trials (vitamin D given alone versus placebo or no treatment; 30 716 participants) were meta-analysed using random effects models and were grouped by study and population characteristics. ResultsIn the primary prevention observational studies, comparing bottom versus top thirds of baseline circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D distribution, pooled relative risks were 1.35 (95% confidence interval 1.13 to 1.61) for death from cardiovascular disease, 1.14 (1.01 to 1.29) for death from cancer, 1.30 (1.07 to 1.59) for non-vascular, non-cancer death, and 1.35 (1.22 to 1.49) for all cause mortality. Subgroup analyses in the observational studies indicated that risk of mortality was significantly higher in studies with lower baseline use of vitamin D supplements . In randomised controlled trials, relative risks for all cause mortality were 0.89 (0.80 to 0.99) for vitamin D 3 supplementation and 1.04 (0.97 to 1.11) for vitamin D 2 supplementation . The effects observed for vitamin D 3 supplementation remained unchanged when grouped by various characteristics. However, for vitamin D 2 supplementation, increased risks of mortality were observed in studies with lower intervention doses and shorter average intervention periods. ConclusionsEvidence from observational studies indicates inverse associations of circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D with risks of death due to cardiovascular disease, cancer, and other causes. Supplementation with vitamin D 3 significantly reduces overall mortality among older adults; however, before any widespread supplementation, further investigations will be required to establish the optimal dose and duration and whether vitamin D 3 and D 2 have different effects on mortality risk.

ObjectiveTo conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological studies investigating the association of arsenic, lead, cadmium, mercury, and copper with cardiovascular disease.DesignSystematic review and meta-analysis.Data sourcesPubMed, Embase, and Web of Science searched up to December 2017.Review methodsStudies reporting risk estimates for total cardiovascular disease, coronary heart disease, and stroke for levels of arsenic, lead, cadmium, mercury, or copper were included. Two investigators independently extracted information on study characteristics and outcomes in accordance with PRISMA and MOOSE guidelines. Relative risks were standardised to a common scale and pooled across studies for each marker using random effects meta-analyses.ResultsThe review identified 37 unique studies comprising 348 259 non-overlapping participants, with 13 033 coronary heart disease, 4205 stroke, and 15 274 cardiovascular disease outcomes in aggregate. Comparing top versus bottom thirds of baseline levels, pooled relative risks for arsenic and lead were 1.30 (95% confidence interval 1.04 to 1.63) and 1.43 (1.16 to 1.76) for cardiovascular disease, 1.23 (1.04 to 1.45) and 1.85 (1.27 to 2.69) for coronary heart disease, and 1.15 (0.92 to 1.43) and 1.63 (1.14 to 2.34) for stroke. Relative risks for cadmium and copper were 1.33 (1.09 to 1.64) and 1.81 (1.05 to 3.11) for cardiovascular disease, 1.29 (0.98 to 1.71) and 2.22 (1.31 to 3.74) for coronary heart disease, and 1.72 (1.29 to 2.28) and 1.29 (0.77 to 2.17) for stroke. Mercury had no distinctive association with cardiovascular outcomes. There was a linear dose-response relation for arsenic, lead, and cadmium with cardiovascular disease outcomes.ConclusionExposure to arsenic, lead, cadmium, and copper is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease and coronary heart disease. Mercury is not associated with cardiovascular risk. These findings reinforce the importance of environmental toxic metals in cardiovascular risk, beyond the roles of conventional behavioural risk factors.

Objective To clarify associations of fish consumption and long chain omega 3 fatty acids with risk of cerebrovascular disease for primary and secondary prevention.Design Systematic review and meta-analysis.Data sources Studies published before September 2012 identified through electronic searches using Medline, Embase, BIOSIS, and Science Citation Index databases.Eligibility criteria Prospective cohort studies and randomised controlled trials reporting on associations of fish consumption and long chain omega 3 fatty acids (based on dietary self report), omega 3 fatty acids biomarkers, or supplementations with cerebrovascular disease (defined as any fatal or non-fatal ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke, cerebrovascular accident, or transient ischaemic attack). Both primary and secondary prevention studies (comprising participants with or without cardiovascular disease at baseline) were eligible.Results 26 prospective cohort studies and 12 randomised controlled trials with aggregate data on 794 000 non-overlapping people and 34 817 cerebrovascular outcomes were included. In cohort studies comparing categories of fish intake the pooled relative risk for cerebrovascular disease for 2-4 servings a week versus ≤1 servings a week was 0.94 (95% confidence intervals 0.90 to 0.98) and for ≥5 servings a week versus 1 serving a week was 0.88 (0.81 to 0.96). The relative risk for cerebrovascular disease comparing the top thirds of baseline long chain omega 3 fatty acids with the bottom thirds for circulating biomarkers was 1.04 (0.90 to 1.20) and for dietary exposures was 0.90 (0.80 to 1.01). In the randomised controlled trials the relative risk for cerebrovascular disease in the long chain omega 3 supplement compared with the control group in primary prevention trials was 0.98 (0.89 to 1.08) and in secondary prevention trials was 1.17 (0.99 to 1.38). For fish or omega 3 fatty acids the estimates for ischaemic and haemorrhagic cerebrovascular events were broadly similar. Evidence was lacking of heterogeneity and publication bias across studies or within subgroups.Conclusions Available observational data indicate moderate, inverse associations of fish consumption and long chain omega 3 fatty acids with cerebrovascular risk. Long chain omega 3 fatty acids measured as circulating biomarkers in observational studies or supplements in primary and secondary prevention trials were not associated with cerebrovascular disease. The beneficial effect of fish intake on cerebrovascular risk is likely to be mediated through the interplay of a wide range of nutrients abundant in fish.

Background:We modelled the efficiency of a personalised approach to screening for prostate and breast cancer based on age and polygenic risk-profile compared with the standard approach based on age alone.Methods:We compared the number of cases potentially detectable by screening in a population undergoing personalised screening with a population undergoing screening based on age alone. Polygenic disease risk was assumed to have a log-normal relative risk distribution predicted for the currently known prostate or breast cancer susceptibility variants (N=31 and N=18, respectively).Results:Compared with screening men based on age alone (aged 55–79: 10-year absolute risk ⩾2%), personalised screening of men age 45–79 at the same risk threshold would result in 16% fewer men being eligible for screening at a cost of 3% fewer screen-detectable cases, but with added benefit of detecting additional cases in younger men at high risk. Similarly, compared with screening women based on age alone (aged 47–79: 10-year absolute risk ⩾2.5%), personalised screening of women age 35–79 at the same risk threshold would result in 24% fewer women being eligible for screening at a cost of 14% fewer screen-detectable cases.Conclusion:Personalised screening approach could improve the efficiency of screening programmes. This has potential implications on informing public health policy on cancer screening.

BackgroundAsymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA) inhibits the production of nitric oxide, a key regulator of the vascular tone, and may be important in the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Our aim was to reliably quantify the association of ADMA and its isomer symmetric dimethylarginine (SDMA) with the risk of CVD outcomes in long-term cohort studies.Methods and ResultsData were collated from 22 prospective studies involving a total of 19 842 participants, which have recorded 2339 CVD, 997 coronary heart disease, and 467 stroke outcomes during a mean follow-up of 7.1 years. In a comparison of individuals in the top with those in the bottom third of baseline ADMA values, the combined risk ratios were 1.42 (95% confidence interval: 1.29 to 1.56) for CVD, 1.39 for coronary heart disease (1.19 to 1.62), and 1.60 for stroke (1.33 to 1.91). Broadly similar results were observed according to participants’ baseline disease status (risk ratios for CVD: 1.35 [1.18 to 1.54] in general populations; 1.47 [1.16 to 1.87] in individuals with pre-existing CVD; and 1.52 [1.26 to 1.84] in individuals with pre-existing kidney disease) and by different study characteristics, including geographical location, sample type, assay method, number of incident outcomes, and level of statistical adjustment (all P values>0.05). In contrast, in 8 prospective studies involving 9070 participants and 848 outcomes, the corresponding estimate for SDMA concentration was 1.32 (0.92 to 1.90) for CVD.ConclusionsAvailable prospective studies suggest associations between circulating ADMA concentration and CVD outcomes under a broad range of circumstances. Further research is needed to better clarify these associations, particularly in large general population studies.