The 2013–2016 epidemic of Ebola virus disease was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Analysing 1610 Ebola virus genomes, representing over 5% of known cases, we reconstruct the dispersal, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region. We test the association of geography, climate and demography with viral movement among administrative regions, inferring a classic ‘gravity’ model, with intense dispersal between larger and closer populations. Despite attenuation of international dispersal after border closures, cross-border transmission had already set the seeds for an international epidemic, rendering these measures ineffective in curbing the epidemic. We address why the epidemic did not spread into neighbouring countries, showing they were susceptible to significant outbreaks but at lower risk of introductions. Finally, we reveal this large epidemic to be a heterogeneous and spatially dissociated collection of transmission clusters of varying size, duration and connectivity. These insights will help inform interventions in future epidemics.

Real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) is the current method of choice for detection and quantification of nucleic acids , especially for molecular diagnostics. Complementarity between primers and template is often crucial for PCR applications , as mismatches can severely reduce priming efficiency. However , little quantitative data on the effect of these mismatches is available. We quantitatively investigated the effects of primer-template mismatches within the 3-end primer region on real-time PCR using the 5-nuclease assay. Our results show that single mismatches instigate a broad variety of effects, ranging from minor (<1.5 cycle threshold , eg , A-C, C-A , T-G , G-T) to severe impact (>7.0 cycle threshold , eg , A-A , G-A , A-G , C-C) on PCR amplification. A clear relationship between specific mismatch types, position , and impact was found , which remained consistent for DNA versus RNA amplifications and Taq/Moloney murine leukemia virus versus rTth based amplifications. The overall size of the impact among the various master mixes used differed substantially (up to sevenfold) , and for certain master mixes a reverse or forward primer-specific impact was observed , emphasizing the importance of the experimental conditions used. Taken together these data suggest that mismatch impact follows a consistent pattern and enabled us to formulate several guidelines for predicting primer-template mismatch behavior when using specific 5-nuclease assay master mixes. Our study provides novel insight into mismatch behavior and should allow for more optimized development of real-time PCR assays involving primer-template mismatches.

IMPORTANCE On February 27, 2020, the first patient with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was reported in the Netherlands. During the following weeks, at 2 Dutch teaching hospitals, 9 health care workers (HCWs) received a diagnosis of COVID-19, 8 of whom had no history of travel to China or northern Italy, raising the question of whether undetected community circulation was occurring. OBJECTIVE To determine the prevalence and clinical presentation of COVID-19 among HCWs with self-reported fever or respiratory symptoms. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This cross-sectional study was performed in 2 teaching hospitals in the southern part of the Netherlands in March 2020, during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Health care workers employed in the participating hospitals who experienced fever or respiratory symptoms were asked to voluntarily participate in a screening for infection with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Data analysis was performed in March 2020. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The prevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection was determined by semiquantitative real-time reverse transcriptasepolymerase chain reaction on oropharyngeal samples. Structured interviews were conducted to document symptoms for all HCWs with confirmed COVID-19. RESULTS Of 9705 HCWs employed (1722 male [18%]), 1353 (14%) reported fever or respiratory symptoms and were tested. Of those, 86 HCWs (6%) were infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (median age, 49 years [range, 22-66 years]; 15 [17%] male), representing 1% of all HCWs employed. Most HCWs experienced mild disease, and only 46 (53%) reported fever. Eighty HCWs (93%) met a case definition of fever and/or coughing and/or shortness of breath. Only 3 (3%) of the HCWs identified through the screening had a history of travel to China or northern Italy, and 3 (3%) reported having been exposed to an inpatient with a known diagnosis of COVID-19 before the onset of symptoms. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Within 2 weeks after the first Dutch case was detected, a substantial proportion of HCWs with self-reported fever or respiratory symptoms were infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, likely as a result of acquisition of the virus in the community during the early phase of local spread. The high prevalence of mild clinical presentations, frequently not including fever, suggests that the currently recommended case definition for suspected COVID-19 should be used less stringently.

In order to determine the possible asymptomatic carriage of Mycoplasma pneumoniae in the upper respiratory tracts of children, Emiel Spuesens and colleagues investigate the prevalence of M. pneumoniae in symptomatic and asymptomatic children at a hospital in The Netherlands. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary