This research is dedicated to solving an urgent problem associated with the large-scale destruction of taiga forests by Siberian silk moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus) outbreaks. The dynamics of the damage to dark coniferous forest stands induced by the Siberian silk moth outbreaks in mid-altitude mountains were studied. A hypothesis was formulated based on the fundamental influence of the orography on the phytophage’s dispersal within the landscape, along with the climate, which acts as a secondary predictor—a catalyst for outbreaks. The study was carried out using Landsat−8 satellite imagery time-series (from 2018 to 2020). The data were verified using a field forest pathological survey of the territory. An assessment of the defoliated forest area and damage association with the landscape was carried out using an Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) digital elevation model. The assessment was aimed to detail the forecast parameters for an outbreak development in mid-altitude mountains using the orographic features—altitude, terrain slope, and slope aspect. Early warnings of phytophagous insect outbreaks in mountain southern taiga should be focused on the permanent monitoring of dark coniferous stands of the mossy group of forest types, covering altitude levels from 400 to 600 m, located on gentle terrains and slopes of up to 15 degrees. The greatest vulnerability to phytophage impacts was characterized as areas located at altitudes from 400 to 600 m. The upper limit of D. sibiricus distribution was 900 m above sea level. The results obtained provide comprehensive information on the Siberian silk moth potential reserves within the study area with the possibility of extrapolation to similar territories. The data will make it possible to model pest outbreaks based on orography and improve the forest pathological monitoring methods at the regional level.

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The present study attempts to identify the biological characteristics of invasive (high-impact in the secondary area) bark beetles and borers species, contributing to their success in an invaded area. We selected 42 species based on the CABI website data on invasive species and information on the most studied regional faunas. Four groups of species with different invasion strategies were identified based on the cluster and factor analysis. The first one (inbred strategy) is characterized by flightless males, xylomycetophagy, low fecundity (~50 eggs), inbreeding, polyvoltinism, and polyphagy. Species with an aggressive strategy are poly- or monovoltine, feeds on a limited number of hosts, larval feeding on the inner bark, are often associated with phytopathogens, and produce aggregation pheromones. Representatives of the polyphagous strategy have a wide range of hosts, high fecundity (~150 eggs), larval feeding on wood, and their life cycle is at least a year long. For the intermediate strategy, the typical life cycle is from a year or less, medium fecundity, feed on inner bark tissues, mono- or oligophagy. Comparison with low-impact alien species showed that the most significant traits from the viewpoint of the potential danger of native plant species are high fecundity, polyvoltinism, presence of symbiotic plant pathogens, long-range or aggregation pheromones.

The problem of damage and infestation of forests by pests and diseases takes a significant place in forestry. The combination of these factors, taking into account cutting and harm to forests from fires and other human activities, as a result leads to tremendous degradation of forest ecosystems. In modern conditions, the forest pathological stands condition in Russia is determined on the basis of data from forest pathological surveys and state forest pathological monitoring. For the current period (2020), disappointing statistics remain on the reproduction of the Siberian silkworm population (Dendrolimus superans sibiricus Tscetv.) nd the negative consequences for taiga forests. Modern climatic changes on a planetary scale have a significant impact on mass outbreaks of dangerous phytophage. In the near future, adaptation measures in the field of forest pathological monitoring should be based on risk factors when planning forest protection measures, a diverse selection of adaptation options and adopting a flexible forest management system at the regional level. In this paper, we consider one of the methods for improving forest pathological monitoring, based on the principles of covering as large a territory as possible with remote sensing data (ERS) combined with predictive models based on GIS that allow predicting the risk of mass reproduction of the Siberian silkworm based on the previously studied factorial dependence.

The characteristics of Abies sibirica Ledeb.- and Pinus sibirica Du Tour dominated forests stands in outbreak spots formed during a Dendrolimus sibiricus outbreak in 2014–2017 were studied at the stage of population collapse (east of the West Siberian Plain and western foothills of the Yenisei Range). The research was based on the data obtained during ground surveys conducted in 2016 when stands characteristics, the Siberian silk moth population density, and defoliation level were recorded. We classified the studied stands using decision trees and random forest algorithms to identify the key characteristics that determine the formation of outbreak spots. The classification results showed that the characteristics of the detected outbreak spots differ significantly from those previously described for dark coniferous stands of the southern taiga in Siberia. The highest probability of the outbreak spot occurrence in the study area was revealed for stands with the following characteristics: moderately moist site; Siberian stone pine and Siberian fir take 40% or more of stem volume; age of less than 105 years. Another group of forest stands under threat are those sharing the following characteristics: large area (more than 60 ha); stand homogeneity; ground vegetation is dominated by feather mosses; age of more than 120 years; Picea obovata Ledeb. takes a significant share in a stem volume. Such characteristics indicate that during the population collapse, the Siberian silk moth forms outbreak spots in stands that either undergo an early successional stage after previous outbreak or have been slightly damaged during the previous outbreaks due to unfavorable habitat conditions.