The purpose of this study is to determine the macroeconomic effect on optimal portfolio returns formed from banking stocks with the Elton-Gruber single index model. The use of banking stocks in the formation of portfolios is due to the many risks inherent in the charged industry caused by the movement of macroeconomic indicators. The test conducted in this study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method to see the long-term and short-term relationship of the independent variables to the dependent variable. The macroeconomic variables used in this study are the BI rate, inflation, money supply and the exchange rate of US Dollar-Rupiah. The results of the study show that there is a long-term and short-term relationship between the BI rate, inflation, money supply, and the US Dollar-Rupiah exchange rate jointly towards optimal portfolio return. This result shows partially only the previous 1-month portfolio return that affects portfolio return growth in long-term relationships. Whereas in the short term, only a change in the BI rate of the previous 3 months and a change in inflation in the previous 1 month which affected the optimal portfolio return growth.
The use of fair value as a measurement in accounting should have relevant information if the information can be used to predict the company's performance in the next period. The purpose of this study is to analyze the relevance of the implementation of the fair value of securities in predicting future income and the stock price of the Banks. This study uses the sample of 23 banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange with time series data of 8 years from 2010-2017. This study uses panel data and regression analysis to examine the effect of independent variables on dependent variables. The independent variable used in this study is the Bank's income and stock price and the dependent variable used is the difference fair value and amortized cost which is the difference between the fair value securities and the amortized cost securities. The controlling variables used in this study consisted of assets, interest income, capital tier 1, non-performing loans and asset-liability repricing gap. The results analysis found that the difference in fair value and the amortized cost has a significant effect on the future income and stock price and the book value of equity has a positive effect on the stock price.
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