Highlights: Demographic variables predict the retail food environment with 72% out-of-sample accuracy. Black population is an important predictor of both food deserts and swamps. Food swamps suffer more from poverty, inequality, and transportation problems.

No abstract

Producing organic milk has been an alternative for conventional farmers who are struggling with low prices. However, organic dairy prices recently collapsed along with conventional prices when several large producers entered the organic market. The current study explores the patterns and determinants of organic dairy premiums. We estimate monthly price premiums for organic whole milk, other fluid milk, yogurt, and eggs over the period 2008-2017 using US retail scanner data. The premiums were 56%, 51%, 27%, and 38%, respectively, with annual compound growth rates of 8%, 7%, −1.42%, and −2.86%. We identify the determinants of price premiums with a vector autoregression to account for endogeneity and autocorrelation, and a machine-learning algorithm-extreme gradient boost-for data-driven insights. Holding the premiums fixed, growing input costs may induce organic sellers to sell more to compensate for costs. Holding organic sales fixed, organic premiums decrease in conventional share of organic, cost of diesel, electricity, and feed grains in general; but

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.