The recent emergence of dengue viruses into new susceptible human populations throughout Asia and the Middle East, driven in part by human travel on both local and global scales, represents a significant global health risk, particularly in areas with changing climatic suitability for the mosquito vector. In Pakistan, dengue has been endemic for decades in the southern port city of Karachi, but large epidemics in the northeast have emerged only since 2011. Pakistan is therefore representative of many countries on the verge of countrywide endemic dengue transmission, where prevention, surveillance, and preparedness are key priorities in previously dengue-free regions. We analyze spatially explicit dengue case data from a large outbreak in Pakistan in 2013 and compare the dynamics of the epidemic to an epidemiological model of dengue virus transmission based on climate and mobility data from ∼40 million mobile phone subscribers. We find that mobile phone-based mobility estimates predict the geographic spread and timing of epidemics in both recently epidemic and emerging locations. We combine transmission suitability maps with estimates of seasonal dengue virus importation to generate fine-scale dynamic risk maps with direct application to dengue containment and epidemic preparedness.dengue | human mobility | Pakistan | mobile phones | epidemiology

Mosquitoes, especially Aedes aegypti, are becoming important models for studying invasion biology. We characterized genetic variation at 12 microsatellite loci in 79 populations of Ae. aegypti, from 30 countries in six continents and used them to infer historical and modern patterns of invasion. Our results support the two subspecies Ae. aegypti formosus and Ae. aegypti aegypti as genetically distinct units. Ae. aegypti aegypti populations outside Africa are derived from ancestral African populations and are monophyletic. The two subspecies co-occur in both East Africa (Kenya) and West Africa (Senegal). In rural/forest settings (Rabai District of Kenya) the two subspecies remain genetically distinct whereas in urban settings they introgress freely. Populations outside Africa are highly genetically structured likely due to a combination of recent founder effects, discrete discontinuous habitats, and low migration rates. Ancestral populations in sub-Saharan Africa are less genetically structured, as are the populations in Asia. Introduction of Ae. aegypti to the New World coinciding with trans-Atlantic shipping in the 16th to 18th Centuries was followed by its introduction to Asia in the late 19th Century from the New World or from now extinct populations in the Mediterranean Basin. Aedes mascarensis is a genetically distinct sister species to Ae. aegypti s.l.. This study provides a reference database of genetic diversity that can be used to determine the likely origin of new introductions that occur regularly for this invasive species. The genetic uniqueness of many populations and regions has important implications for attempts to control Ae. aegypti, especially for methods using genetic modification of populations.

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Abstractobjectives Statistical tools are effectively used to determine the distribution of mosquitoes and to make ecological inferences about the vector-borne disease dynamics. In this study, we utilised species distribution models to understand spatial patterns of Aedes aegypti in two dengue-prevalent regions of Pakistan, Lahore and Swat. Species distribution models can potentially indicate the probability of suitability of Ae. aegypti once introduced to new regions like Swat, where invasion of this species is a recent phenomenon.methods The distribution of Ae. aegypti was determined by applying the MaxEnt algorithm on a set of potential environmental factors and species sample records. The ecological dependency of species on each environmental variable was analysed using response curves. We quantified the statistical performance of the models based on accuracy assessment and spatial predictions.results Our results suggest that Ae. aegypti is widely distributed in Lahore. Human population density and urban infrastructure are primarily responsible for greater probability of mosquito occurrence in this region. In Swat, Ae. aegypti has clumped distribution, where urban patches provide refuge to the species in an otherwise hostile heterogeneous environment and road networks are assumed to have facilitated in passive-mediated dispersal of species.conclusions In Pakistan, Ae. aegypti is expanding its range northwards; this could be associated with rapid urbanisation, trade and travel. The main implication of this expansion is that more people are at risk of dengue fever in the northern highlands of Pakistan.