The characterisation of past coastal flood events is crucial for risk prevention. However, it is limited by the partial nature of historical information on flood events and the lack or limited quality of past hydro-meteorological data. In addition coastal flood processes are complex, driven by many hydrometeorological processes, making mechanisms and probability analysis challenging. Here, we tackle these issues by joining historical, statistical and modelling approaches. We focus on a macrotidal site (Gâvres, France) subject to overtopping and investigate the 1900-2010 period. We build a continuous hydro-meteorological database and a damage event database using archives, newspapers, maps and aerial photographies. Using together these historic information, hindcasts and hydrodynamic models, we identify 9 flood events, among which 5 are significant flood

Abstract. Recent dramatic events have allowed significant progress to be achieved in coastal flood modelling over recent years. Classical approaches generally estimate wave overtopping by means of empirical formulas or 1-D simulations, and the flood is simulated on a DTM (digital terrain model), using soil roughness to characterize land use. The limits of these methods are typically linked to the accuracy of overtopping estimation (spatial and temporal distribution) and to the reliability of the results in urban areas, which are places where the assets are the most crucial.This paper intends to propose and apply a methodology to simulate simultaneously wave overtopping and the resulting flood in an urban area at a very high resolution. This type of 2-D simulation presents the advantage of allowing both the chronology of the storm and the particular effect of urban areas on the flows to be integrated. This methodology is based on a downscaling approach, from regional to local scales, using hydrodynamic simulations to characterize the sea level and the wave spectra. A time series is then generated including the evolutions of these two parameters, and imposed upon a time-dependent phase-resolving model to simulate the overtopping over the dike. The flood is dynamically simulated directly by this model: if the model uses adapted schemes (well balanced, shock capturing), the calculation can be led on a DEM (digital elevation model) that includes buildings and walls, thereby achieving a realistic representation of the urban areas.This methodology has been applied to an actual event, the Johanna storm (10 March 2008) in Gâvres (South Brittany, in western France). The use of the SURF-WB model, a very stable time-dependent phase-resolving model using non-linear shallow water equations and well-balanced shock-capturing schemes, allowed simulating both the dynamics of the overtopping and the flooding in the urban area, taking into account buildings and streets thanks to a very high resolution (1 m). The results obtained proved to be very coherent with the available reports in terms of overtopping sectors, flooded area, water depths and chronology. This method makes it possible to estimate very precisely not only the overtopping flows, but also the main characteristics of flooding in a complex topography like an urban area, and indeed the hazard at a very high resolution (water depths and vertically integrated current speeds).The comparison with a similar flooding simulation using a more classical approach (a digital terrain model with no buildings, and a representation of the urban area by an increased soil roughness) has allowed the advantages of an explicit representation of the buildings and the streets to be identified: if, in the studied case, the impact of the urbanization representation on water levels does indeed remain negligible, the flood dynamics and the current speeds can be considerably underestimated when no explicit representation of the buildings is provided, especially along the main streets. Moreover, on...

Abstract. In this paper, we present new results on the potential La Palma collapse event, previously described and studied in Abadie et al. (2012). Three scenarios (i.e., slide volumes of 20, 40 and 80 km3) are considered, modeling the initiation of the slide to the water generation using THETIS, a 3D Navier–Stokes model. The slide is a Newtonian fluid whose viscosity is adjusted to approximate a granular behavior. After 5 min of propagation with THETIS, the generated water wave is transferred into FUNWAVE-TVD (Total Variation Diminishing version of FUNWAVE) to build a wave source suitable for propagation models. The results obtained for all the volumes after 15 min of Boussinesq model simulation are made available through a public repository. The signal is then propagated with two different Boussinesq models: FUNWAVE-TVD and Calypso. An overall good agreement is found between the two models, which secures the validity of the results. Finally, a detailed impact study is carried out on La Guadeloupe using a refined shallow water model, SCHISM, initiated with the FUNWAVE-TVD solution in the nearshore area. Although the slide modeling approach applied in this study seemingly leads to smaller waves compared to former works, the wave impact is still very significant for the maximum slide volume considered on surrounding islands and coasts, as well as on the most exposed remote coasts such as Guadeloupe. In Europe, the wave impact is significant (for specific areas in Spain and Portugal) to moderate (Atlantic French coast).

Abstract.A model has been developed in order to estimate insurance-related losses caused by coastal flooding in France. The deterministic part of the model aims at identifying the potentially flood-impacted sectors and the subsequent insured losses a few days after the occurrence of a storm surge event on any part of the French coast. This deterministic component is a combination of three models: a hazard model, a vulnerability model, and a damage model. The first model uses the PREVIMER system to estimate the water level resulting from the simultaneous occurrence of a high tide and a surge caused by a meteorological event along the coast. A storage-cell flood model propagates these water levels over the land and thus determines the probable inundated areas. The vulnerability model, for its part, is derived from the insurance schedules and claims database, combining information such as risk type, class of business, and insured values. The outcome of the vulnerability and hazard models are then combined with the damage model to estimate the event damage and potential insured losses. This system shows satisfactory results in the estimation of the magnitude of the known losses related to the flood caused by the Xynthia storm. However, it also appears very sensitive to the water height estimated during the flood period, conditioned by the junction between seawater levels and coastal topography, the accuracy for which is still limited by the amount of information in the system.

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