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The present overview is the second part of the article “Runoff of Russian Rivers Under Current and Projected Climate Change: A Review,” which focuses on modern assessment of possible changes in the runoff characteristics of Russian rivers in the XXI century under projected global climate change. The article considers two assessment groups: based on (1) climate models and (2) hydrological models, using data of climate model simulations. The review mainly presents works that have been published over the last 7−8 years, since the release of the previous IPCC Assessment Report and the National Assessment Report of Roshydromet. It is noted that, in recent years, there has been a shift regarding the methodology of assessment of hydrological consequences of projected climate change—from simulations based on climate models to simulations based on regional hydrological models that allow one to simulate characteristics of the water regime of rivers over a historical period more accurately and to assess their possible changes in the future with lower uncertainty than climate models.

Abstract. Regional climate change affects the flow conditions in river basins which can impact the health of aquatic ecosystems. Potential impacts of future climate scenarios on Coregonus migratorius spawning migration in the Selenga River were assessed. A regional process-based hydrological model was used to reproduce the historical trends in the annual flow and assess its future changes under several climate change scenarios. Annual flow projections were used to identify preferential river reaches for spawning activity of the Arctic cisco (Coregonus migratorius), based on the significant negative correlation of spawning activity with the Selenga River streamflow. The applied methodology shows that the projected decline in runoff of 10 % to 25 % in XXI century may result in shifting of the spawning locations further upstream of the Ulan-Ude city, a local “pollution hotspot”.

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