SummaryThe effects of betel nut chewing, smoking and alcohol on the occurrence of leukoplakia and its malignant transformation to oral carcinoma were quantified in a leukoplakia cohort (n = 435) from one medical centre between 1988 and 1998 in Taiwan. Sixty oral carcinomas were ascertained in this cohort. A case-control study within the leukoplakia cohort was used to study, risk factors. Using the Weibull survival model, the incidence of malignant transformation of leukoplakia was shown to increase with follow-up years. After adjustment for other relevant risk factors, betel nut chewing (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 4.59; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25-16.86) remained a significant risk factor for malignant transformation. Results from the case-control study showed that the adjusted odds ratios for betel nut chewing and smoking on the occurrence of leukoplakia were 17.43 (95% Cl 1.94-156.27) and 3.22 (95% Cl 1.06-9.78), respectively. Similar findings were observed when daily frequency and duration were taken into account. This implies that cessation of smoking may reduce by 36% leukoplakia cases, while elimination of betel nuts may prevent 62% of leukoplakia and 26% of malignant transformation to oral carcinoma in the underlying population.