The article focuses on identifying and systematizing the hallmarks of the COVID-19 recession as unprecedented in terms of the both spread and impact on the global economy in the phase of business activity downturn. The dynamics of the main indicators of economic growth are researched and it is substantiated that the negative linear forecast trends allow forecasting the long-term recovery period after the current global recession. It is shown that the global recession of 2020 negatively affects the prospects for the recovery of major national economies of the world, given the high probability of the introduction of repeated quarantine restrictions. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of the index of global economic uncertainty, the world economy is confirmed to be in the most uncertain state during the period of observations. According to the analysis of the values of the barometer of world trade in goods in 2020, negative changes in the structure and dynamics of foreign trade turnover and doubt for the rapid recovery of global supply chains were evidenced. Based on the generalization of the results of the study, key distinctive signs of the COVID-19 economic recession have been systematized justifying that, in addition to any recession inherent in the loss of growth rate of world production, the current economic crisis is accompanied by a drop reaching the critical deadlines of a number of indicators of the intensity of global development, which confirms its unprecedented spread and impact on the world economy. It is substantiated that the confirmation of the determined trends allows to predict the long-term negative consequences of the modern global recession, which leads to the need to substantiate the directions of recovery of the world economy and foreign trade cooperation of the countries under crisis conditions.
The article aims at clarifying the essence of hybrid threats through systematizing their key characteristics and determining preconditions for conflict escalation. Common definitions of hybrid threats are considered and the lack of a unified approach to their interpretation is emphasized given their diversity and comprehensive nature. The high destructive potential of hybrid threats due to their hidden nature and focus on the most vulnerable aspects of the hybrid aggression object are substantiated. The specifics of carrying out hybrid threats in the economic sphere is analyzed, and the example of foreign trade relations between Ukraine and the Russian Federation shows that the economic sphere serves as a space for hiding and deformalizing a hybrid conflict. The essence of the synergetic effect made by the synchronous realization of hybrid threats in different confrontation areas is considered. It is demonstrated that the key feature of hybrid conflicts is their staying outside the legally justified intervention of other states and international organizations. Emphasis is placed on the rapid spread of hybrid threats in the economic sphere and on the special risks that conflicts hybridization creates for economically weak states. Another important feature of hybrid threats is identified, namely, the high probability of their escalation due to unforeseen events, the global pandemic COVID-19 in particular. It is substantiated that the expected risk of the post-pandemic period is the transition of most national economies to protectionist policies, which will inevitably increase the risk of hybrid threats escalation for economically weak states due to the desire of more powerful states to protect their national economic interests. Having analyzed the specifics of hybrid threats and understanding hybridity as a result of combining different forms, the authors identify the key characteristics of hybrid threats and further combine them into the following groups according to their essence: general aspects; specifics of methods and tools; areas of implementation; prerequisites for efficiency.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
customersupport@researchsolutions.com
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
Copyright © 2025 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.