BackgroundLifetime stroke risk has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We determined lifetime risk of stroke globally and at the regional and country level.MethodsUsing Global Burden of Disease Study estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of non-stroke mortality, we estimated the cumulative lifetime risk of ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and total stroke (with 95% uncertainty intervals [UI]) for 195 countries among adults over 25 years) for the years 1990 and 2016 and according to the GBD Study Socio-Demographic Index (SDI).ResultsThe global estimated lifetime risk of stroke from age 25 onward was 24.9% (95% UI: 23.5–26.2): 24.7% (23.3–26.0) in men and 25.1% (23.7–26.5) in women. The lifetime risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3% and of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. The risk of stroke was 23.5% in high SDI countries, 31.1% in high-middle SDI countries, and 13.2% in low SDI countries with UIs not overlapping for these categories. The greatest estimated risk of stroke was in East Asia (38.8%) and Central and Eastern Europe (31.7 and 31.6 %%), and lowest in Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). From 1990 to 2016, there was a relative increase of 8.9% in global lifetime risk.ConclusionsThe global lifetime risk of stroke is approximately 25% starting at age 25 in both men and women. There is geographical variation in the lifetime risk of stroke, with particularly high risk in East Asia, Central and Eastern Europe.

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Worldwide, pneumonia is the leading cause of death in infants and young children (aged <5 years). We provide an overview of the global pneumonia disease burden, as well as the aetiology and management practices in different parts of the world, with a specific focus on the WHO Western Pacific Region. In 2011, the Western Pacific region had an estimated 0.11 pneumonia episodes per child-year with 61,900 pneumonia-related deaths in children less than 5 years of age. The majority (>75%) of pneumonia deaths occurred in six countries; Cambodia, China, Laos, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines and Viet Nam. Historically Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae were the commonest causes of severe pneumonia and pneumonia-related deaths in young children, but this is changing with the introduction of highly effective conjugate vaccines and socio-economic development. The relative contribution of viruses and atypical bacteria appear to be increasing and traditional case management approaches may require revision to accommodate increased uptake of conjugated vaccines in the Western Pacific region. Careful consideration should be given to risk reduction strategies, enhanced vaccination coverage, improved management of hypoxaemia and antibiotic stewardship.