When estimating the prevalence of spasticity it is essential to assess both arms and legs, using both scales. Despite measuring tone at several joints, spasticity was demonstrated in only 40 (38%) patients, lower than previous estimates.

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the Medical Research Council scale was reliable in the tested muscle groups. The modified Ashworth scale demonstrated reliability in all tested muscle groups except the ankle plantarflexors. If reliable measurement of tone at the ankle is required for a specific purpose (e.g. to measure the effect of therapeutic intervention), further work will be necessary.

Using the models, it may be possible to predict whether or not spasticity will develop in patients 12 months after stroke. The utility of the models is aided by their use of predictor variables that are routinely collected as part of stroke care in hospital and which are easy to measure. The models need testing prospectively in a new cohort of patients in order to test their validity, reliability and utility and to determine if other data could improve their efficiency.

A multicentre randomized controlled trial to assess this question is feasible but further work is being conducted before proceeding, to satisfy the concerns expressed to our group regarding the appropriateness of the intervention and the outcome measures.