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The southeastern portion of the Edwards Plateau of Texas, historically a stronghold of Rio Grande wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo intermedia), has seen a decline in turkey numbers since the 1970s. Because adult and juvenile survival are key parameters affecting turkey population dynamics, we used radiotagged individuals to compare Rio Grande wild turkey survival in areas of suspected decline versus stable portions of the Edwards Plateau during 2001–2003. Reproductive period (breeding or nonbreeding) had an impact on survival, but differences in age, sex, or region did not influence survival. Model averaged estimates of monthly survival were 0.97 (SE = 0.005) for nonbreeding periods and 0.96 (SE = 0.007) for breeding periods. Our results indicate juvenile and adult survival in the declining areas was similar to survival in the stable areas of the Edwards Plateau. This suggests causes of the decline might be associated with differences during other life‐history stages, such as nest success or poult survival, although we cannot rule out the possibility juvenile or adult survival contributed to the decline in the past. This situation demonstrates why wildlife managers should be cognizant of the implications of initiating long‐term monitoring programs after changes in population status occur, rather than initiating them in expectation of such changes.

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We evaluated brood sex ratio (BSR) variation in Rio Grande wild turkeys (RGWT; Meleagris gallopavo intermedia) in the Edwards Plateau and South Texas Plains of Texas, USA, during 2005‐2006. Offspring sex was determined from DNA extracted from tissue biopsies of embryos from unhatched eggs or vascular tissue from eggshells of hatched and depredated eggs. Sex ratio across all eggs was 56.3% male (135/240; X21 = 3.75, P = 0.053). We found that mean population growth rate based on a population simulation with BSR at unity averaged 1.02 (range = 0.924‐1.058), whereas it declined to 0.978 (range = 0.816‐1.037) using BSR estimates from our study. Although our statistical analyses did not detect BSRs different from unity in BSR, our simulation modeling demonstrated that BSR variation caused biologically significant differences in mean population growth rates. Even though the biological mechanism controlling primary sex ratio remains unknown, our estimates of BSR should allow managers to more reliably predict population dynamics insuring viable RGWT populations across Texas.

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