Purpose The purpose of this study is to make an analysis of the short- and long-term effects of inflation, exchange rate, housing interest rate, industrial production index, total housing loans and housing volume on housing inflation in Turkey, taking into account the multiple structural breaks. Design/methodology/approach Multiple structural break Lee–Strazicich unit root test, autoregressive distributed lag bound test and Granger causality test based on error correction model were used. Findings There is both a short- and long-term relationship between housing prices and macrovariables. Housing prices are mostly affected by housing interest rates, housing volume, real exchange rate and total housing loans in the short run. In the long run, it is mostly affected by total housing loans, housing volume and housing interest rates. Research limitations/implications The variables used in the analysis are: housing price index, consumer price index, dollar rate, housing interest rate, industrial production index, total housing loan amount and domestic loan volume. Because the data that variables started common is 2010:M01, the period starting from this date until 2021:M12 is considered. The research covers only Turkey as a country. Determining the micro- and macroeffects of housing prices can always offer solutions for the problems experienced in housing supply and housing demand. Originality/value While investigating housing prices, there are no studies in which total housing loans and housing volume are included in the model together. However, it is important to analyze the effect of the current conjuncture, in which there has been constant increases in foreign exchange rates and high inflation in recent years, on housing prices in Turkey. In this study, investigating these effects by using econometric methods that include structural breaks also increases the original value of this study.
This study examines how much of the total loans are in follow-up and which sectors have difficulties repaying these loans, using the monthly data from the post-2000 period using the Event Study method. Undoubtedly, banks’ loans to the sectors are the most basic investment element. It is a significant problem on which sectors these loans are concentrated on and the contribution of these sectors to the country's economy, and their effects on the economy. Another critical problem is the recycling problem in the payment of loans extended by banks. This situation, called non-performing loans in short, is of great importance in terms of being the leading indicator of crises. The research findings showed significant increases in almost all selected sectors in the pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis periods. From this point of view, the rate of growth in non-performing loans of banks provides some predictions about the general course of the economy.
The Eurasian Countries incorporates many economic and cultural wealth. The Eurasian countries have attracted attention all over the world with its rich oil and natural gas reserves and geopolitical situation. Due to the increasing importance of the Eurasian countries, as well as being an alternative to a political foreign policy and it has created an economically viable alternative in terms of foreign trade for Turkey. The importance of exports is increasing for the development of Turkey and Eurasia cannot be neglected as an important issue. History of the republic's foreign policy is focused on establishing good relations with the West. Of the Soviet Union collapsed and the Cold War ended after the opening of the new Turkish foreign policy became inevitable to be based in Central Asia and the Caucasus, Turkey aimed to be active in this region. The main purpose of our study was that Turkey's foreign trade with The Eurasian Countries is to reveal the relationship. The interest in the region began in the beginning of 1990, the economic policies implemented by Turkey has tried to analyze using relevant data. İn our study, in order to analyze the economic relationship between our countries and Eurasian Countries, Turkey's import and export figures which were explained in the form of tables with the countries concerned. We will concentrate on the major Eurasian countries, especially in our work we focus on Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova.
In this study the effect of the loans extended by banks on the growth of the sector on a sectoral basis in the quarter of 2004Q1 and 2021Q2 in Turkiye has been examined. The variables used as data in the study are real loans extended by banks to the construction, food, metal, personal loans, textile, transportation and wholesale retail sectors. The VAR method, the Johansen cointegration test and the Engle-Granger causality test were used as methods while performing the analysis. While analyzing whether the loans extended by banks to various sectors have a long-term relationship with growth with the Johansen cointegration test, the direction of these relations was determined with the Engle-Granger Causality test. Finally, the effect of shocks in sectoral loans on economic growth was evaluated by using impulse-response functions. The variables used were obtained from the CBRT (Banks Association of Turkiye Risk Center). According to the Johansen cointegration test results, it was determined that there is cointegration between the data in the long term. According to the Engle-Granger test results, at the 10% significance level, there is a one-way causality relationship from GDP to transportation, personal loans and construction in the long run and there is a unidirectional causality relationship in the long run from the metal sector to GDP.
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