Olive (Olea europaea L.) trees can reach a very old age and still bear fruit. Although traditional groves are planted at low density and are rainfed, many newer groves are planted at higher densities and irrigated. As expected, initial yields per area are larger in high density plantations, yet some farmers claim they experience a reduction in productivity with grove age, even in well maintained trees. In order to test the accuracy of this claim and its underlying cause, we measured several productivity parameters in selected branches of trees in seven sites differing in cultivar (‘Barnea’ or ‘Souri’), location and irrigation regime (rainfed or irrigated) for two consecutive years. For each site (cultivar/location/regime), we compared neighboring groves of different ages, altogether 14 groves. There was no consistent reduction in productivity in older groves. Differences in productivity between irrigated cultivars were mostly due to variation in the percentage of inflorescences that formed fruit. Several parameters were higher in irrigated, compared to rainfed ‘Souri’. Differences in productivity between years within the same grove was mostly due to variation in the percentage of nodes forming inflorescences. We studied the expression of OeFT2 encoding a FLOWERING LOCUS T protein involved in olive flower induction in leaves of trees of different ages, including juvenile seedlings. Expression increased during winter in mature trees and correlated with the percentage of inflorescences formed. The leaves of juvenile seedlings expressed higher levels of two genes encoding APETALA2-like proteins, potential inhibitors of OeFT2 expression. The buds of juvenile seedlings expressed higher levels of OeTFL1, encoding a TERMINAL FLOWER 1 protein, a potential inhibitor of OeFT2 function in the meristem. Our results suggest that olives, once past the juvenile phase, can retain a similar level of productivity even in densely planted well maintained groves.

With global warming, mean winter temperatures are predicted to increase. Therefore, understanding how warmer winters will affect the levels of olive flower induction is essential for predicting the future sustainability of olive oil production under different climactic scenarios. Here, we studied the effect of fruit load, forced drought in winter, and different winter temperature regimes on olive flower induction using several cultivars. We show the necessity of studying trees with no previous fruit load as well as provide evidence that soil water content during winter does not significantly affect the expression of an FT-encoding gene in leaves and the subsequent rate of flower induction. We collected yearly flowering data for 5 cultivars for 9 to 11 winters, altogether 48 data sets. Analyzing hourly temperatures from these winters, we made initial attempts to provide an efficient method to calculate accumulated chill units that are then correlated with the level of flower induction in olives. While the new models tested here appear to predict the positive contribution of cold temperatures, they lack in accurately predicting the reduction in cold units caused by warm temperatures occurring during winter.