JEL classification: C68 D58 F18 Q54 Q58 Keywords: CGE Border tax adjustments Carbon leakage ChinaAs an alternative measure for the proposal of border tax adjustments (BTAs) advocated by the countries that seek to abate CO 2 emissions (hereafter referred to as 'abating countries'), export carbon tax (ECT) voluntarily conducted by the developing countries has been widely discussed in recent years. This paper uses the multi-regional and multi-commodity computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and the GTAP8.1 database to investigate the economic and environmental effects of carbon tariffs on Chinese exports. The following three policy scenarios are considered: 1) the abating countries implement cap-and-trade emission programs without BTAs; 2) the unilaterally abating countries levy import tariffs and export subsidies on non-abating countries; and, 3) the abating countries implement unilateral climate policies combined with ECT imposed by China. The ECT policy of China is evaluated with a carbon price set at 17 US$/t-CO 2 . Results illustrate that the ECT voluntarily implemented by China is ineffective in reducing its domestic CO 2 emissions. Moreover, ECT merely has a minor impact on global emissions. Finally, the competitiveness of China's energy-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) industries suffers substantial losses if export tariffs are imposed. However, China's gains in terms of welfare and gross domestic product (GDP) would be slightly improved if an ECT policy is implemented, compared to the scenario where China is subjected to BTAs levied by the abating coalition. In the light of the tradeoff between tariff revenue for welfare and competiveness losses of the EITE industries, it is therefore difficult to conclude that carbon tariff on Chinese exports is an alternative policy to BTAs.

The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) is a Free Trade Area (FTA) regional trade agreement in Africa. Currently, Ethiopia is negotiating to join COMESA FTA. This study assesses the impact of three regional trade arrangements, COMESA FTA, customs unions, and the European Partnership Agreement (EPA) on the economy of Ethiopia. The analysis is based on a static Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, version 9 database. Unlike previous studies, the customs union scenarios are designed at the detailed Harmonized System (HS) level. COMESA FTA (scenario 1) with standard GTAP model results in a welfare loss for Ethiopia due to negative terms of trade and investment-saving effect, but with unemployment closure (scenario 2); Ethiopia enjoys a welfare gain mainly due to endowment effect. In scenario 3 (COMESA customs union) and scenario 4 (European Partnership Agreement), Ethiopia loses due to negative terms of trade and investment-saving effect. There is a large increase in demand for unskilled labor force in Ethiopia by around US$23 million, US$112 million, and US$43 million for scenario 2, 3, and 4 respectively. Moreover, there is a positive output effect for oilseeds, leather, and basic metals across all scenarios. The world, as a whole, enjoys welfare gains with COMESA FTA (scenario 1 and 2). However, with scenario 3 and 4, there is an overall welfare loss. There is no strong reason for Ethiopia to move to the customs union, and the EPA in the short run. Therefore, a transition period is necessary, but it is recommended for Ethiopia to join COMESA FTA.

We empirically examine the relationship between capital accumulation, vintage and productivity of industries in Japan using firm-level microdata. Our analyses confirm that vintage significantly influenced productivity during the period of economic expansion. The effect was particularly notable during the upturn that started in 2000, when most examined industries displayed strong vintage effects. The rejuvenation of capital equipment during this period clearly resulted from a strong productivity effect. During the economic bubble of the late 1980s, by contrast, vintage exerted no observable effects on productivity despite significant increase in investment. This finding shows that an increase in capital stock during this period was not necessarily productive and likely produced a merely temporary boom. We reconfirm that the relation between vintage and productivity changed in subtle ways in response to the phases of business cycles.

No abstract

No abstract