Variation in surface solar irradiance is investigated using ground-based observation data. The solar irradiance analyzed in this paper is scaled by the solar irradiance at the top of the atmosphere and is thus dimensionless. Three metrics are used to evaluate the variation in solar irradiance: the mean, standard deviation, and sample entropy. Sample entropy is a value representing the complexity of time series data, but it is not often used for investigation of solar irradiance. In analyses of solar irradiance, sample entropy represents the manner of its fluctuation; large sample entropy corresponds to rapid fluctuation and a high ramp rate, and small sample entropy suggests weak or slow fluctuations. The three metrics are used to cluster 47 ground-based observation stations in Japan into groups with similar features of variation in surface solar irradiance. This new approach clarifies regional features of variation in solar irradiance. The results of this study can be applied to renewable-energy engineering.

Inertia reduction due to inverter-based resource (IBR) penetration deteriorates power system stability, which can be addressed using virtual inertia (VI) control. There are two types of implementation methods for VI control: grid-following (GFL) and grid-forming (GFM). There is an apparent difference among them for the voltage regulation capability, because the GFM controls IBR to act as a voltage source and GFL controls it to act as a current source. The difference affects the performance of the VI control function, because stable voltage conditions help the inertial response to contribute to system stability. However, GFL can provide the voltage control function with reactive power controllability, and it can be activated simultaneously with the VI control function. This study analyzes the performance of GFL-type VI control with a voltage control function for frequency stability improvement. The results show that the voltage control function decreases the voltage variation caused by the fault, improving the responsivity of the VI function. In addition, it is found that the voltage control is effective in suppressing the power swing among synchronous generators. The clarification of the contribution of the voltage control function to the performance of the VI control is novelty of this paper.

From the perspective of stable operation of the power transmission system, the transmission system operators (TSO) needs to procure reserve adjustment power at the stage of the previous day based on solar power forecast information from global horizontal irradiance (GHI). Because the reserve adjustment power is determined based on information on major outliers in past forecasts, reducing the maximum forecast error in addition to improving the average forecast accuracy is extremely important from the perspective of grid operation. In the past, researchers have proposed various methods combining the numerical weather prediction (NWP) and machine learning techniques for the one day-ahead solar power forecasting, but the accuracy of NWP has been a bottleneck issue. In recent years, the development of the ensemble prediction system (EPS) forecasts based on probabilistic approaches has been promoted to improve the accuracy of NWP, and in Japan, EPS forecasts in the mesoscale domain, called mesoscale ensemble prediction system (MEPS), have been distributed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The use of EPS as a machine learning model is expected to improve the maximum forecast error, as well as the accuracy, since the predictor can utilize various weather scenarios as information. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of EPS on the GHI prediction and the structure of the machine learning model that can effectively use EPS. In this study, we constructed the support vector regression (SVR)-based predictors with multiple network configurations using MEPS as input and evaluated the forecast error of the Kanto region GHI by each model. Through the comparison of the prediction results, it was shown that the machine learning model can achieve average accuracy improvement while reducing the maximum prediction error by MEPS, and knowledge was obtained on how to effectively provide EPS information to the predictor. In addition, machine learning was found to be useful in improving the systematic error of MEPS.

No abstract

Although the recent development of solar power forecasting through machine learning approaches, such as the machine learning models based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) data, has been remarkable, their extreme error requires an increase in the amount of reserve capacity procurement used for the power system safety. Hence, a reduction of the serious overestimation is necessary for efficient grid operation. However, despite the importance of the above issue, few studies have focused on the model design, suppressing serious errors, to the best of the authors’ knowledge. This study investigates a prediction model that can reduce the huge overestimation of the solar irradiance, which poses a risk to the power system. The specific approaches used are as follows: the employment of Support Vector Quantile Regression (SVQR), the utilization of Meso-scale Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS, Meso-scale EPS for the regions of Japan) data, which is based on the forecasts from Meso-scale Model (MSM) as explanatory variables, and the hyperparameter adjustment. The performance of the models is verified in the one day-ahead forecasting for surface solar irradiance at five sites in the Kanto region as the numerical simulation, where their forecasting errors are measured by the root mean square error (RMSE) and the 3σ error, which corresponds to the 99.87% quantile error of the order statistics. The test results indicate the following findings: the SVRs’ RMSE and 3σ error tend to be trade-offs in the case of varying the penalty of the regularization term; by using SVR as a post-processing tool for MSM or MEPS data, both of the score of their metrics can be improved from original data; the MEPS-based SVQR (MEPS-SVQR) could provide superior performance in both metrics in comparison with the MSM-based SVQR (MSM-SVQR) if the parameters are properly adjusted. Although the time period and the type of MEPS data used for the validation are limited, our report is expected to help the design of NWP-based machine learning models to enable short-term solar power forecasts with a low risk of overestimation.