No abstract

This study is a quantitative analysis designed to compare two groups of factually innocent capital defendants: those who were exonerated and those who were executed. There are a total of 97 cases in the sample, including 81 exonerations and 16 executions. The primary objective of the authors is to identify factors that may predict case outcomes among capital defendants with strong claims of factual innocence. Through the use of a logistic regression model, the following variables were significant predictors of case outcome (exoneration vs. execution): allegations of perjury, multiple types of evidence, prior felony record, type of attorney at trial, and race of the defendant. These results point toward significant problems with the administration of capital punishment deriving primarily from the quality of the case record created at trial.

Prior research on the role of race in wrongful capital convictions has focused primarily on the race of the defendant. In contrast, this article begins with two case studies that illustrate the impact of the race of the defendant and also the race of the victim in contributing to erroneous convictions. The second section of this article identifies the race of the defendant and the victim in 82 cases where prisoners were released from death row because of doubts about their guilt and in a matched group of inmates who were executed. Through the use of three logistic regression models, the combination of the race of the defendant and the race of the victim is identified as a significant predictor of case outcome (exoneration vs. execution). The results also indicate that an indirect relationship may exist between the combination of the race of the defendant and the victim, the strength of the evidence, and case outcome.

The annual number of new death sentences in the United States has fallen by more than 75% in the last two decades. The current study examines 1,665 death-eligible cases from 1994, 2004, and 2014 to draw empirically based conclusions that can shed light on some significant predictors associated with this dramatic decline. The results of logistic regression models suggest that the following were consistently significant predictors of case outcomes throughout the country over time: multiple perpetrators, age of perpetrators between 18 and 20 years, number of mitigators, cases with high and low aggravation, and five formerly high-volume counties. By contrast, factors that were important predictors of case outcomes in 1994 but that became insignificant in later years were robbery-murder and limited-revenue counties; the murder rate was not significant in 1994 but became significant in later years. Allegations of intellectual disability and county population size were not significant predictors in any of the years.