This paper examined the direction of causality between financial deepening and economic growth in Nigeria for the period 1970-2013. The study adopted the Toda-Yamamoto augmented Granger causality test and results showed that the growth-financial deepening nexus in Nigeria follows the supply-leading hypothesis. This means that it is financial deepening that leads to growth and not growth leading financial deepening. Among other things, the study recommended that policy efforts should be geared towards removing obstacles that undermine the growth of credit to the private sector, and must restore investors' confidence in the stock market operations.
This paper examined the incidence, depth and severity of poverty, and poverty correlates in Bayelsa state using the FGT decomposable class of poverty measures and a logit regression model as analytical tools on the 2009-10 NLSS data. Results from the FGT model showed that about 25 percent of households are income poor. To escape poverty the averagely poor has to mobilize financial resources to be able to meet 14 percent of N22393.62 household per capita expenditure monthly and the core poor has to mobilize financial resources up to 9 percent more of N22393.62 household per capita expenditure monthly than that required for the averagely poor. Results from the logit regression showed that agriculture and household size increases the probability that a household will be poor while dwelling in the urban area, being headed by male, a naira increase in households per capita expenditure on education and per capita expenditure on health and a year's increase in the number of years spent schooling by household head reduces the probability that a household will be poor. However the major poverty correlates in Bayelsa state were found to be per capita expenditure on education, per capita expenditure on health, years of schooling and household size. It was therefore recommended that free, compulsory and quality education at least up to the basic level as being practiced in some states of the country, easily accessible and quality healthcare services be provided.
The study examines the impact of interest rate differential and exchange rate movement on the dynamics of Nigeria’s international private capital flows from 2010Q1 to 2019Q4. It uses the interest rate parity theory and the Markov Switching Time Varying Transition Probability Modelling approach. Findings show that interest rate differential does not explain the dynamics of aggregate capital and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows, but significantly explains Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) flows. Also, Movement in real exchange rate is significant in explaining outflows and inflows in FPI, and inflows in FDI, but neutral to aggregate capital flows. The study concludes that deviations from interest rate parity provides opportunities for interest rate and currency arbitrage in Nigeria but using aggregate capital flows mask this evidence. The study therefore recommends that the CBN should focus on exchange rate stabilization policies, so as not only to discourage FPI reversal but to also enhance FDI inflow. This can be done by putting in place foreign reserve accretion measures to boost the ability of the CBN to defend the Naira. The new policy initiative on remittances is a right step in the right direction as it could boost external reserve.
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