How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model. Within each outcome, prediction error was strongly associated with the family being predicted and weakly associated with the technique used to generate the prediction. Overall, these results suggest practical limits to the predictability of life outcomes in some settings and illustrate the value of mass collaborations in the social sciences.
Previous research finds that unemployment leaves permanent “scars” on subjective well-being (SWB) that remain even after reemployment. However, this research systematically overweighs long-term unemployment, inaccurately measures employment transitions, often does not track individuals long enough to substantiate scarring, and does not always account for age-related changes in well-being. This paper uses event history calendars from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to track complete monthly employment histories of prime working age Americans over a 17-year period, and accounts for the temporal relationships between SWB, age, and employment transitions using a novel fixed-effects formulation. The results suggest that there is some variation in patterns of recovery by employment stability after job loss, but no significant differences were observed by the duration of unemployment spells. Within 2 years of reemployment, average SWB levels reverted toward baseline trajectories across all groups, showing no evidence of scarring. This study brings unemployment literature into better alignment with research on resilience and adaptation. The findings also highlight some limitations of the construct of SWB for assessing the long-term costs of unemployment.
Most social determinants of health are shaped by political decisions. However, beyond specific policies, there is limited empirical investigation into the consequences of the changing political context on population health in the United States. We examine a salient political factor—the party of the president and governor—as a determinant of infant health between 1971 and 2018 using a battery of fixed-effects models. We focus on infant health because it has far-reaching implications for future population health and inequality. Our analysis yields three findings: (1) Democratic presidents have a beneficial effect on infant health outcomes, with stronger effects for Black infants compared to White infants. (2) The president’s party effect materializes after two years of a Democratic transition, and remains elevated until the end of the party’s tenure in office. (3) Specific measurable social policies appear to play a minor role in explaining the beneficial effect of Democratic administrations. Our findings suggest the party in power is an important determinant of infant health, particularly among vulnerable populations, and they invite a deeper examination of mechanisms.
Objective This study examines the impact of fatherhood on diverse health behaviors and outcomes among a representative sample of Millennial men in the United States. Background Much research explores the consequences of parenthood for women, but less is known about health outcomes and trajectories of men who become fathers. Theoretical approaches suggest both health‐enhancing changes driven by social control and a new father identity, and health‐decreasing changes driven by the costs and burdens of fatherhood. Method The NLSY97 longitudinal survey and a battery of novel fixed effects models are used to identify the consequences of paternity on diverse health outcomes, controlling for selectivity based on unobserved characteristics and unobserved trajectories of men who become fathers and accounting for heterogeneity of effects. Results Becoming a father induces weight gain and a decline in self‐reported health, but reduces alcohol consumption. Effects on weight and alcohol use varied across strata defined by race and education, but changes in self‐reported health were consistent across sub‐groups. Conclusion The transition to fatherhood induces changes in health outcomes and behaviors that are both positive and negative. These consequences are not transitory. Rather, they persist over men's early adulthood. Implications Fatherhood induces health‐related changes that endure over the first years after becoming a father, and which may contribute to morbidity and mortality in late adulthood.
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