Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light. In summer 2015, we collected samples across Europe to investigate the effect of nutrient and temperature gradients on the variability of toxin production at a continental scale. Direct and indirect effects of temperature were the main drivers of the spatial distribution in the toxins produced by the cyanobacterial community, the toxin concentrations and toxin quota. Generalized linear models showed that a Toxin Diversity Index (TDI) increased with latitude, while it decreased with water stability. Increases in TDI were explained through a significant increase in toxin variants such as MC-YR, anatoxin and cylindrospermopsin, accompanied by a decreasing presence of MC-LR. While global warming continues, the direct and indirect effects of increased lake temperatures will drive changes in the distribution of cyanobacterial toxins in Europe, potentially promoting selection of a few highly toxic species or strains.

For many applications in population genetics, codominant simple sequence repeats (SSRs) may have substantial advantages over dominant anonymous markers such as amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs). In high polyploids, however, allele dosage of SSRs cannot easily be determined and alleles are not easily attributable to potentially diploidized loci. Here, we argue that SSRs may nonetheless be better than AFLPs for polyploid taxa if they are analyzed as effectively dominant markers because they are more reliable and more precise. We describe the transfer of SSRs developed for diploid Mercurialis huetii to the clonal dioecious M. perennis. Primers were tested on a set of 54 male and female plants from natural decaploid populations. Eight of 65 tested loci produced polymorphic fragments. Binary profiles from 4 different scoring routines were used to define multilocus lineages (MLLs). Allowing for fragment differences within 1 MLL, all analyses revealed the same 14 MLLs without conflicting with merigenet, sex, or plot assignment. For semiautomatic scoring, a combination of as few as 2 of the 4 most polymorphic loci resulted in unambiguous discrimination of clones. Our study demonstrates that microsatellite fingerprinting of polyploid plants is a cost efficient and reliable alternative to AFLPs, not least because fewer loci are required than for diploids.

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