Abstract. We investigated the influence of past fires on the large-scale distribution of barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) in the Northwest Territories, Canada, during winter. We used an information-theoretic approach and data describing fire history, vegetation, and predation risk to develop resource selection functions that explained caribou distribution on early-and late-winter ranges. We evaluated multiple sets of models constructed across years for all caribou (pooled models) and for individual caribou by period (early and late winter). Winter range habitats important to caribou were characterized by a high percentage of ground cover of lichen and herbaceous forage and a close proximity to lakes and rivers. Although caribou avoided areas densely populated with burns, there was considerable use of early-seral habitats as well as areas adjacent to the burn boundary. Disparate selection strategies among caribou highlight the importance of investigating both individual and global resource selection models. These results suggest that at some spatial and temporal scales, individual barren-ground caribou may be less averse to fire than previously thought.

Managing vast federal public lands governed by multiple land use policies creates challenges when demographic data on at-risk species are lacking. The U.S. Bureau of Land Management Cedar City Field Office used this project in the Black Mountains (Utah) to inform vegetation management supporting at-risk greater sage-grouse and Utah prairie dog planning. Ecological systems were mapped from satellite remote sensing imagery and used to model species habitat suitability under two levels of management activity (custodial, preferred) and climate scenarios for historic and two global circulation models. Spatial state-and-transition models of ecological systems were simulated for all six scenarios up to 60 years while coupled with expert-developed habitat suitability indices. All ecological systems are at least moderately departed from reference conditions in 2012, whereas habitat suitability was 50.5% and 48.4% for sage-grouse and prairie dog, respectively. Management actions replaced non-native annual grasslands with perennial grasses, removed conifers, and controlled exotic forbs. The drier climate most affected ecological departure and prairie dog habitat suitability at 30 years only. Different climates influenced spatial patterns of sage-grouse habitat suitability, but nonspatial values were unchanged. Climate impacts on fire, vegetation succession, and restoration explain many results. Front-loading restoration is predicted to benefit under future drier climate.