Purpose Acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major cause of mortality and morbidity. Noninvasive ventilation (NIV) is proven to be effective in the majority of patients with acute exacerbation COPD (AECOPD) complicated with respiratory failure. NIV could be lifesaving but also can delay mechanical ventilation if its efficacy is not assessed in a timely manner. In this study, we analyzed potential predictors of NIV failure in AECOPD in a tertiary medical intensive care unit (MICU). In particular, we wondered whether duration of NIV among those who eventually failed was associated with poor outcomes. Methods A retrospective review of consecutive patients with a primary diagnosis of AECOPD requiring NIV admitted to the MICU was conducted for the period between 2012 and 2017. Baseline data included demographics, APACHE III score, albumin level, blood lactate, and blood gas elements. Additional chart review was performed to collect NIV setting parameters on presentation to the MICU. Clinical outcome variables collected included outcome and duration of NIV, duration of invasive mechanical ventilation, MICU length of stay, hospital length of stay, and in-hospital mortality. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to determine independent variables associated with clinical outcomes. Results There were 370 patients who met the inclusion criteria; 53.2% were male. Mean age was 64.7 ± 11.2 years old. Mean baseline FEV 1 was 34 ±17% of predicted. Patients had mean pH of 7.20 ± 0.54 and P a CO 2 of 70.3 ± 28.7 on presentation; 323 patients (87.3%) were successfully weaned off NIV; 47 patients (12.7%) failed NIV and required invasive mechanical ventilation. APACHE III score was higher among patients who failed NIV (68.3±18.9 versus 48.8± 15.2, P < 0.001). In the subset of 47 patients who failed NIV requiring intubation, duration of NIV was 25.0 ± 58.8 h. Multivariate regression analysis yielded a model consisting of APACHE III score and body mass index as predictive variables for NIV failure (C-statistic = 0.809). Duration of NIV was not associated with worse clinical outcomes among patients who failed NIV. Conclusions NIV is successful in preventing invasive mechanical ventilation in majority of patients with acute respiratory failure due to COPD. Patients with worse clinical status at presentation are more likely to fail NIV and require mechanical ventilation. In the subgroup of patients who failed NIV, duration of NIV prior to intubation was not associated with poor clinical outcomes.

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