No abstract

The Mann-Kendall test, composite analysis, and 68 high-quality meteorological stations were used to explore the spatiotemporal variations and causes of precipitation extremes over the Yellow River basin (YRB) during the period of 1960-2011. Results showed that (a) the YRB is characterized by decreases of most precipitation indices, excluding the simple daily intensity index, which has increasing trends in most locations, suggesting that the intensity of rainfall and the probability of occurrence of droughts have increased during the last decades. (b) Trends of extreme precipitation show mixed patterns in the lower reach of the YRB, where droughtflood disasters have increased. The increases in heavy rainfall and decreases in consecutive wet days in recent years over the northwestern portions of the YRB indicate that the intensity and frequency of above-normal precipitation have been trending upward in domains. In the centralsouth YRB, the maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1day) and precipitation on extremely wet days (R99p) have significantly increased, whereas the number of consecutive dry days has declined; these trends suggest that the intensity of precipitation extremes has increased in those regions, although the frequency of extreme and total rainfall has decreased. (c) The spatial distributions of seasonal trends in RX1day and maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5day) exhibited less spatial coherence, and winter is becoming the wettest season regionwide, particularly over the central-south YRB. (d) There were multiple and overlapping cycles of variability for most precipitation indices, indicating variations of time and frequency. (e) Elevation is intimately correlated with precipitation indices, and a weakening East Asian summer monsoon during 1986-2011 compared to that in 1960-1985 may have played an important role in the declines in most indices over the YRB. Therefore, the combined effects from local and teleconnection forcing factors have collectively influenced the variations in precipitation extremes across the YRB. This study may provide valuable evidence for the effective management of water resources and the conduct of agricultural activities at the basin scale.

While the changes of extreme weather and climate events have been well investigated, the change of compound events (i.e., combinations of multiple weather/climate extremes and/or hazards), which severely affect the biophysical and human systems, remains poorly understood. Here, we examine the decadal trends of subsequently (or “preconditioned”) compound extreme heat‐precipitation events (i.e., extreme precipitation events preceded by an extreme heat) across China during 1961–2016. We find that, on average, around one‐quarter of summer precipitation extremes over China (especially western China) are preceded by an extreme heat event. In most areas of China, the fraction of the compound precipitation events preceded by heat extremes exhibits significant increases since the 1960s, with a national mean increasing tendency of 2.51%·decade−1. Furthermore, the rising trends in the fractional contribution of hot weather to extreme precipitation events over most parts of China have accelerated in more recent decades.