Purpose The purpose of this paper is to show the impact of climate change on yield and water requirement of three rainfed crops in Setif region. Design/methodology/approach This study investigates likely changes in annual temperature and precipitation over Setif high plains region (North East of Algeria) among three future periods: 2025, 2050 and 2075. The projections are based on the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. MAGICC-SCENGEN 5.3 v.2 was used as a tool for downscaling the four selected general circulation models (GCMs) output data. The expected impact of climate change on yield and water requirement of winter wheat, barley and olive was evaluated using the CROPWAT model. Findings The projection of the four GCMs showed that average temperature will increase by 0.73 to 3.42°C, and the precipitation will decrease by 1 to 52.7 percent, across the three future periods under the two SRES scenarios. Winter wheat and olive yields are expected to decrease under the three types of soils (heavy, medium and light). However, barley yield is expected to reduce under light soil only. Crop water requirements and irrigation water requirements are expected to increase under the two scenarios and across the three future periods. Originality/value This research is one of the first to study the impact of future climate change on water requirement and yield of rainfed crops over Setif region.

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Purpose -The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, to show the impact of greenhouse gas emission scenarios on annual temperature and precipitation changes during three periods of the twenty-first century in Setif region by using two selected GCMs; and second, to show the importance of "Setif-Hodna" hydraulic transfers' project, like a method to adapt to the water scarcity in the future. Design/methodology/approach -This study investigates likely changes in annual temperature and precipitation over Setif high plains region (North-East of Algeria) under four Special Report on Emission Scenarios scenarios: A1B, B1, A2 and B2, between three time slices: 2030, 2060 and 2090. MAGICC-SCENGEN 5.3v.2 was used as a tool for downscaling the two selected general circulation models. Findings -The projections of GFDLCM20 and GFDLCM21 indicate that annual temperature will increase under the four scenarios and across the three time slices. GFDLCM20 predictions indicate a general decrease in mean annual precipitation across the four scenarios, with average of −3.02, −2.47 and −1.07 percent in 2030, 2060 and 2090, respectively. GFDLCM21 show a high decrease, with values of −18.72, −27.2 and −31.9 percent across the three periods, respectively. Originality/value -This work is one of the first to study the impact of greenhouse gas emission scenarios on annual temperature and precipitation changes over the region, and present the hydraulic transfers project "Setif-Hodna" like an adaptive strategy to limit the effect of water scarcity in this region.

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess the inter-seasonal temperature and precipitation changes in Setif high plains region under future greenhouse gas emissions, by using four general circulation models (GCMs) output data between three time slices of twenty-first century. The objective is to show the vulnerability of the region and the strategy of adaptation to these changes. Design/methodology/approach – This study investigates likely changes in seasonal temperature and precipitation over Setif high plains region (North East of Algeria) between three time slices: 2025, 2050 and 2075. The projections are based on the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. MAGICC-SCENGEN 5.3v.2 was used as a tool for downscaling the four selected GCMs output data. The vulnerability of the region, coupled with the possible impacts climate change, stresses the need for adaptive strategies in key sectors in the region for the long term sustainable development. Findings – The results for change in seasonal temperature indicate a general warming under the two scenarios till the year 2075.The results of GFDLCM21 and GFDLCM20 show a general reduction of spring and autumn precipitations and an increase in winter and summer. BCCRBCM2 predicts a decrease in winter, spring and summer precipitations and an increase in autumn. Climate change, as well as increases in climate variability, will alter precipitation, temperature and evaporation regimes, and will increase the vulnerability of Setif high plains to changes in hydrological cycles. Climate and weather forecasting coupled with biotechnological advances in improving crop yields and tolerances to aridity, is likely to bring significant payoffs for strategy of adaptation in the field of agricultural water management. Originality/value – This work is one of the first to study inter-seasonal temperature and precipitation changes under global warming over the region, and suggest some adaptive strategies to limit the effect of these changes.

PurposeThe first aim of this study is to show the impact of global warming on temperature and precipitation changes in Algeria. The second objective is to exhibit the strategy planned by the country to mitigate these effects on water resources in the future.Design/methodology/approachThis research assesses the expected changes in temperature, precipitation and SPEI index, over Algeria (16 weather stations), between two horizons (2030, 2050), by using an ensemble of 16 general circulation models under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios.FindingsMore warming and drought will be experienced under RCP8.5 than RCP2.6 scenario. The highest warming is observed at the Southern stations. However, the lowest precipitation is projected in the western stations. The results of SPEI calculation indicate that the severity of drought spread progressively across time and space. The highest values were observed over 2050 with values varied between 0.15 and −2.08 under RCP2.6 scenario, and range from −0.73 to −2.63 under RCP8.5. These results indicate that Algeria is highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change on water resources, which stressed the need to develop a strategy against this situation.Originality/valueThis study is one of the first to simulate the future climate changes over 16 Algerian weather stations by using an average of 16 general circulation models data, under two RCP scenarios. This study shows the 2030 water development strategy to mitigate the effect of drought and water scarcity on different sectors.