Remote sensing observations and climate models indicate that the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass since the late 1990s, mostly due to enhanced surface melting from rising summer temperatures. However, in situ observational records of GrIS melt rates over recent decades are rare. Here we develop a record of frozen meltwater in the west GrIS percolation zone preserved in seven firn cores. Quantifying ice layer distribution as a melt feature percentage (MFP), we find significant increases in MFP in the southernmost five cores over the past 50 years to unprecedented modern levels (since 1550 CE). Annual to decadal changes in summer temperatures and MFP are closely tied to changes in Greenland summer blocking activity and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures since 1870. However, summer warming of ~1.2°C since 1870–1900, in addition to warming attributable to recent sea surface temperature and blocking variability, is a critical driver of high modern MFP levels.

Abstract. The mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) in a warming climate is of critical interest in the context of future sea level rise. Increased melting in the GrIS percolation zone due to atmospheric warming over the past several decades has led to increased mass loss at lower elevations. Previous studies have hypothesized that this warming is accompanied by a precipitation increase, as would be expected from the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship, compensating for some of the melt-induced mass loss throughout the western GrIS. This study tests that hypothesis by calculating snow accumulation rates and trends across the western GrIS percolation zone, providing new accumulation rate estimates in regions with sparse in situ data or data that do not span the recent accelerating surface melt. We present accumulation records from sixteen 22–32 m long firn cores and 4436 km of ground-penetrating radar, covering the past 20–60 years of accumulation, collected across the western GrIS percolation zone as part of the Greenland Traverse for Accumulation and Climate Studies (GreenTrACS) project. Trends from both radar and firn cores, as well as commonly used regional climate models, show decreasing accumulation rates of 2.4±1.5 % a−1 over the 1996–2016 period, which we attribute to shifting storm tracks related to stronger atmospheric summer blocking over Greenland. Changes in atmospheric circulation over the past 20 years, specifically anomalously strong summertime blocking, have reduced GrIS surface mass balance through both an increase in surface melting and a decrease in accumulation rates.

Abstract. The mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) in a warming climate is of critical interest to scientists and the general public in the context of future sea-level rise. Increased melting in the GrIS percolation zone due to atmospheric warming over the past several decades has led to increased mass loss at lower elevations. Previous studies have hypothesized that this warming is accompanied by a precipitation increase, as would be expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship, negating some of the melt-induced mass loss throughout the Western GrIS. This study tests that hypothesis by calculating snow accumulation rates and trends across the Western GrIS percolation zone, providing new critical accumulation estimates in regions with sparse and/or dated in situ data for calibration of future regional climate models. We present accumulation records from sixteen 22–32 m long firn cores and 4436 km of ground penetrating-radar, covering the past 20–60 years of accumulation, collected across the Western GrIS percolation zone as part of the Greenland Traverse for Accumulation and Climate Studies (GreenTrACS) project. Trends from both radar and firn cores, as well as commonly used regional climate models, show decreasing accumulation and precipitation over the 1996–2016 period, which we attribute to shifting storm-tracks related to stronger atmospheric summer blocking over Greenland. Changes in atmospheric circulation over the past 20 years, specifically anomalously high summertime blocking, have reduced GrIS surface mass balance through both an increase in surface melting and a decrease in accumulation.

Extensive efforts have been made to observe the accumulation and melting of seasonal snow. However, making accurate observations of snow water equivalent (SWE) at global scales is challenging. Active radar systems show promise, provided the dielectric properties of the snowpack are accurately constrained. The dielectric constant (k) determines the velocity of a radar wave through snow, which is a critical component of time-of-flight radar techniques such as ground penetrating radar and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR). However, equations used to estimate k have been validated only for specific conditions with limited in situ validation for seasonal snow applications. The goal of this work was to further understand the dielectric permittivity of seasonal snow under both dry and wet conditions. We utilized extensive direct field observations of k, along with corresponding snow density and liquid water content (LWC) measurements. Data were collected in the Jemez Mountains, NM; Sandia Mountains, NM; Grand Mesa, CO; and Cameron Pass, CO from February 2020 to May 2021. We present empirical relationships based on 146 snow pits for dry snow conditions and 92 independent LWC observations in naturally melting snowpacks. Regression results had r2 values of 0.57 and 0.37 for dry and wet snow conditions, respectively. Our results in dry snow showed large differences between our in situ observations and commonly applied equations. We attribute these differences to assumptions in the shape of the snow grains that may not hold true for seasonal snow applications. Different assumptions, and thus different equations, may be necessary for varying snowpack conditions in different climates, suggesting that further testing is necessary. When considering wet snow, large differences were found between commonly applied equations and our in situ measurements. Many previous equations assume a background (dry snow) k that we found to be inaccurate, as previously stated, and is the primary driver of resulting uncertainty. Our results suggest large errors in SWE (10–15%) or LWC (0.05–0.07 volumetric LWC) estimates based on current equations. The work presented here could prove useful for making accurate observations of changes in SWE using future InSAR opportunities such as NISAR and ROSE-L.