We evaluated the mortality risk among 306 male alcoholics living in Osaka, Japan, at the time of initial diagnosis between 1972 and 1983, with regard to the cause of death, length of time from diagnosis, and participation in an alcohol abstinence self-help group. By the closing date on 1 The mortality risk from all causes still remained significantly high beyond the tenth year following initial diagnosis (O/E = 2.6, 95%CI = 1.0-6.2). The mortality risks from liver cirrhosis and external death (such as suicide) were highest within the first year following diagnosis, and were still high beyond the tenth year. A significantly high mortality risk from diseases of the circulatory system was observed between the first and ninth years, and the mortality risk from all malignant neoplasms was significantly elevated beyond 10 years following diagnosis. Alcoholics who did not join a self-help group soon after the initial institutional treatment had different cause-specific and time-specific mortality risks from those who did join a self-help group. These findings show the importance of long-term clinical follow-up of male alcoholics, taking into consideration the cause-specific mortality.

The subjects of this study were 306 male alcoholics who lived in Osaka, Japan, and who were initially diagnosed with alcoholism at a psychiatric institution between 1972 and 1983. Follow-up studies were done on three occasions: 1 March 1985 (Time 1), 1 November 1988 (Time 2) and 1 March 1992 (Time 3). We followed up 232 (75.8%) of the 306 male alcoholics. By the end of the study period 110 (35.9%) of the subjects were deceased. Regarding cross-sectional sobriety status, from Time 1 to Time 3 the complete abstinence rate changed from 16.0 to 18.6%, excessive drinking rate was from 13.1 to 9.8%, and controlled drinking rate was from 6.9 to 9.8%. The longitudinal sobriety status of 122 living patients during the 5 years before the close of this study were: rate of stable abstinence, 28.7%; unstable abstinence, 21.3%; controlled drinking, 12.3%; and relapse 37.7%. Such variables as being without public assistance at the time of the initial diagnosis of alcoholism and attending a self-help group soon after the initial treatment were associated with stable abstinence. Age (20-39 years) and receiving outpatient treatment at the time of the initial treatment also emerged as predictors of survival. However, those variables, except attending a self-help group soon after the initial treatment, might merely indicate severity of alcoholism. For improving treatment results, it may be most important to provide a treatment environment within the residential area so that alcoholics may receive treatment at an early stage of alcoholism and attend a self-help group.

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