A major goal for the food scientist is the prediction of the change in quality of a particular food as a function of both time and environmental conditions. This has become the focus of many research and development projects because the information obtained is needed by those in the food industry so that they can In order to make useful predictions about shelf life, the research scientist needs information regarding 1) the potential major modes for loss of quality of the product, 2) the factors which control the initial quality or nutritional value during manufacture, 3) the environmental conditions the food will be exposed to including temperature, relative humidity and light, 4) whether it is packaged in a semi-permeable container, and, if so, the permeability of that film to oxygen, water vapor, and light, and 5) the kinetics of the reactions leading to loss of quality or nutritional value as a function of the reaction phase conditions in the food and the external environment.Since foods are very complex systems (food science is sometimes referred to as the study of "messy" chemistry), it is not always possible to isolate clear-cut chemical reaction mechanisms which lead to the observed changes in quality or to have elegant mathematical models that can describe the reaction rate under a variety of conditions. Thus compromises must be made. In addition, in the industrial research and development environment, it is not always possible to do extended studies to isolate the mechanisms and develop the data, so abuse conditions are chosen to get quick results. From the data obtained under these abuse conditions it is hoped to project what would happen under normal, long-term storage.This article will briefly review the possible major modes of deterioration that should be evaluated, then a general review of the application of simple kinetic methods will be made, and finally some mathematical examples will be given. For a more extensive review of shelf-life deterioration see Labuza U). A food system is very complex. Assuming that, for a given mode of deterioration, the above assumptions hold, one can simply write for the rate of gain of an undesirable quality factor [B] (7) and (8) [B]. Since a straight line can always be drawn between two points, as we add more data we increase our ability to predict both outside as well as inside the range of the data points.Thus, in Figure 1, a linear plot of quality versus time for a loss in quality of a food would allow easy extrapolation to the end of shelf life (ts) since the zero-order data fit a good straight line. However, the first-order data on the same coordinates would be more difficult to extrapolate because of the curvature of the graph. Plotting the first-order data as in Figure 2 solves this extrapolation problem since it gives us the desired straight line.Interestingly, in looking at the loss-of-quality data in Figure 1 for up to 50% loss (if this were as far as one collected data) one would find it hard to distinguish between zero-and first-order. The poor...