The recent shocks in demand and supply caused by Covid-19 influence and the current depreciation of the Georgian Lari (GEL) reduced the trust of economic agents in currency. There is no objective macroeconomic reason that would change their attitude to the future of currency for the better. Depreciation of a currency impacts all the components of GDP, leading to myriad problems in economic growth. The depreciation of the national currency is generally perceived as positively affecting the country's export. The study analyzes the impact of Georgian Lari's exchange rate depreciation on Georgia's export using monthly GEL exchange rate data from May 2006 to April 2020. The paper employs Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) for its advantages of measuring cointegration, usefulness in the small samples, and being unbiased in measuring a long-run relationship between variables. Outcomes indicate that the exchange rate depreciation has an inverse long-run impact on export in the long-run period. The exchange rate impact on Georgia's export shows inelastic demand for Georgia's export goods. The study contributes to the literature while providing the implication of currency depreciation on exports of the Georgian economy. The estimated value of the exchange rate has been found to exert no direct pressure on the amount of export. In the paper, possible reasons for such implications are also examined. Paper found that the control variable interest rate also has an inverse impact on Georgia's export performance in the long-run as well as in the short-run. International reserves positively influence the export in the long-run with a high significance level. The paper also discusses possible ways of stabilization of national currency.
Household consumption and the variables driving it have garnered extensive attention in economic literature. GDP per capita, gross savings, and inflation are among the macroeconomic variables typically considered to affect household spending. The paper examines the effect of these macroeconomic variables on household consumption using the ARDL model. The yearly aggregate data utilized in this analysis spans the period from 1983 to 2018. The paper found a long-run negative relation between household final consumption expenditure and gross domestic saving in the long run. The study showed positive and significant long-run relationships between GDP per capita and household consumption and a significant and negative relationship between savings and household consumption both in the short and long runs.
This paper aims to empirically examine the drivers of the bilateral balance of the trade model for the Georgian-Chinese economy from 2000 to 2020 and the influence of the Georgia-China free trade agreement on the Georgian-Chinese balance of trade. The Error Correction Model (ECM) of the ARDL was used to see if the balance of trade and its predictors have a long-term relationship. One of the ARDL’s defining properties is that it may be utilized in circumstances when there is minimal data, regardless of the level of variable integration. According to the findings, a perceived effective exchange rate has a statistically significant positive impact on the balance of trade in the long run and a statistically significant negative impact on the balance of trade in the short run. The output is shaped to favor the presence of the elasticity attitude’s J-Curve impact. The study also found that the comparative supply of money (MS) and GDP have only a minor impact on the trade balance in the medium and long run. The sponging and monetary methods are ineffective in characterizing the bilateral trade deficit between Georgia and China.
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