We use a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) model, the North Atlantic Stochastic Hurricane Model (NASHM), in combination with sea-surface temperature (SST) projections from climate models, to estimate regional changes in US TC activity into the 2030s. NASHM is trained on historical variations in TC characteristics with two SST indices: global-tropical mean SST and the difference between tropical North-Atlantic (NA) SST and the rest of the global tropics, often referred to as “relative SST.” Testing confirms the model’s ability to reproduce historical US TC activity, as well as to make skillful predictions. When NASHM is driven by SST projections into the 2030s, overall NA annual TC counts increase, and the fractional increase is the greatest at the highest wind intensities. However, an eastward anomaly in mean TC tracks and an eastward shift in TC formation region result in a geographically-varied signal in US coastal activity. Florida’s Gulf coast is projected to see significant increases in TC activity, compared to the long-term historical mean, and these increases are fractionally greatest at the highest intensities. By contrast, the northwestern US Gulf and the US East Coast will see little change.
Metropolitan areas with high traffic demand are often served by a system of two or more airports whose arrival and departure operations are highly interdependent. Such an airport system is referred to as a metroplex. A temporal-spatial framework for evaluating concepts for improving metroplex operations was developed. In this framework, concepts for metroplex operations were defined by their spatial and temporal impacts on operations. These impacts were evaluated parametrically with a generic metroplex model. The experiment revealed that temporal scheduling and route segregation are the two most important integrated concepts for reducing delays in the terminal area airspace. These two concepts were then incorporated to form an experiment matrix, and their effects were tested in a metroplex model based on the New York terminal area airspace. Simulation analyses showed a nearly 80% reduction in queueing delay for arrival flights when the scheduling and route structural design were combined and more than 60% reduction with scheduling alone.
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