BackgroundCheckpoint inhibitors provided sustained clinical benefit to metastatic lung cancer patients. Nonetheless, prognostic markers in metastatic settings are still under research. Imaging offers distinctive advantages, providing whole-body information non-invasively, while routinely available in most clinics. We hypothesized that more prognostic information can be extracted by employing artificial intelligence (AI) for treatment monitoring, superior to 2D tumor growth criteria.MethodsA cohort of 152 stage-IV non-small-cell lung cancer patients (NSCLC) (73 discovery, 79 test, 903CTs), who received nivolumab were retrospectively collected. We trained a neural network to identify morphological changes on chest CT acquired during patients’ follow-ups. A classifier was employed to link imaging features learned by the network with overall survival.ResultsOur results showed significant performance in the independent test set to predict 1-year overall survival from the date of image acquisition, with an average area under the curve (AUC) of 0.69 (p < 0.01), up to AUC 0.75 (p < 0.01) in the first 3 to 5 months of treatment, and 0.67 AUC (p = 0.01) for durable clinical benefit (6 months progression-free survival). We found the AI-derived survival score to be independent of clinical, radiological, PDL1, and histopathological factors. Visual analysis of AI-generated prognostic heatmaps revealed relative prognostic importance of morphological nodal changes in the mediastinum, supraclavicular, and hilar regions, lung and bone metastases, as well as pleural effusions, atelectasis, and consolidations.ConclusionsOur results demonstrate that deep learning can quantify tumor- and non–tumor-related morphological changes important for prognostication on serial imaging. Further investigation should focus on the implementation of this technique beyond thoracic imaging.

Background: Immune checkpoint inhibitor efficacy in advanced cancer patients remains difficult to predict. Imaging is the only technique available that can non-invasively provide whole body information of a patient's response to treatment. We hypothesize that quantitative whole-body prognostic information can be extracted by leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) for treatment monitoring, superior and complementary to the current response evaluation methods.Methods: To test this, a cohort of 74 stage-IV urothelial cancer patients (37 in the discovery set, 37 in the independent test, 1087 CTs), who received anti-PD1 or anti-PDL1 were retrospectively collected. We designed an AI system [named prognostic AI-monitor (PAM)] able to identify morphological changes in chest and abdominal CT scans acquired during follow-up, and link them to survival.Results: Our findings showed significant performance of PAM in the independent test set to predict 1-year overall survival from the date of image acquisition, with an average area under the curve (AUC) of 0.73 (p < 0.001) for abdominal imaging, and 0.67 AUC (p < 0.001) for chest imaging. Subanalysis revealed higher accuracy of abdominal imaging around and in the first 6 months of treatment, reaching an AUC of 0.82 (p < 0.001). Similar accuracy was found by chest imaging, 5–11 months after start of treatment. Univariate comparison with current monitoring methods (laboratory results and radiological assessments) revealed higher or similar prognostic performance. In multivariate analysis, PAM remained significant against all other methods (p < 0.001), suggesting its complementary value in current clinical settings.Conclusions: Our study demonstrates that a comprehensive AI-based method such as PAM, can provide prognostic information in advanced urothelial cancer patients receiving immunotherapy, leveraging morphological changes not only in tumor lesions, but also tumor spread, and side-effects. Further investigations should focus beyond anatomical imaging. Prospective studies are warranted to test and validate our findings.

RECIST is grounded on the assumption that target lesion selection is objective and representative of the total tumor burden's response to therapy. A computer simulation model was designed to study target lesion selection's impact on response assessment. Readers' disagreement as a function of the total number of lesions, affected organs, and lesion growth was analyzed. Disagreement aggravates when the number of lesions increases, when lesions are concentrated on few organs, and when lesion growth borders the thresholds of progressive disease and partial response. In a metastatic setting, RECIST displays a non-linear, unpredictable behavior, not reliable for response assessment due to target lesion selection variability. Including more (if not all) lesions in the quantitative analysis of tumor burden is desirable.

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