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Transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between joint processes, has steadily gained popularity in the analysis of complex stochastic dynamics in diverse fields, including the neurosciences, ecology, climatology, and econometrics. We show that for a broad class of predictive models, the log-likelihood ratio test statistic for the null hypothesis of zero transfer entropy is a consistent estimator for the transfer entropy itself. For finite Markov chains, furthermore, no explicit model is required. In the general case, an asymptotic χ2 distribution is established for the transfer entropy estimator. The result generalizes the equivalence in the Gaussian case of transfer entropy and Granger causality, a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression, and establishes a fundamental connection between directed information transfer and causality in the Wiener-Granger sense.
We advance a dominant neural strategy for facilitating conceptual thought. Concepts are groupings of "object" attributes. Once the brain learns such critical groupings, the "object" attributes are inhibited from conscious awareness. We see the whole, not the parts. The details are inhibited when the concept network is activated, ie. the inhibition is dynamic and can be switched on and off. Autism is suggested to be the state of retarded concept formation. Our model predicts the possibility of accessing nonconscious information by artificially disinhibiting (turning off) the inhibiting networks associated with concept formation, using transcranial magnetic brain stimulation (TMS). For example, this opens the door for the restoration of perfect pitch, for recalling detail, for acquiring accent-free second languages beyond puberty, and even for enhancing creativity. The model further shows how unusual autistic savant skills as well as certain psychopathologies can be due respectively to privileged or inadvertent access to information that is normally inhibited from conscious awareness.
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