BackgroundMolecular studies have reported divergence times of modern placental orders long before the Cretaceous–Tertiary boundary and far older than paleontological data. However, this discrepancy may not be real, but rather appear because of the violation of implicit assumptions in the estimation procedures, such as non-gradual change of evolutionary rate and failure to correct for convergent evolution.Methodology/Principal FindingsNew procedures for divergence-time estimation robust to abrupt changes in the rate of molecular evolution are described. We used a variant of the multidimensional vector space (MVS) procedure to take account of possible convergent evolution. Numerical simulations of abrupt rate change and convergent evolution showed good performance of the new procedures in contrast to current methods. Application to complete mitochondrial genomes identified marked rate accelerations and decelerations, which are not obtained with current methods. The root of placental mammals is estimated to be ∼18 million years more recent than when assuming a log Brownian motion model. Correcting the pairwise distances for convergent evolution using MVS lowers the age of the root about another 20 million years compared to using standard maximum likelihood tree branch lengths. These two procedures combined revise the root time of placental mammals from around 122 million years ago to close to 84 million years ago. As a result, the estimated distribution of molecular divergence times is broadly consistent with quantitative analysis of the North American fossil record and traditional morphological views.Conclusions/SignificanceBy including the dual effects of abrupt rate change and directly accounting for convergent evolution at the molecular level, these estimates provide congruence between the molecular results, paleontological analyses and morphological expectations. The programs developed here are provided along with sample data that reproduce the results of this study and are especially applicable studies using genome-scale sequence lengths.

With growing amounts of genome data and constant improvement of models of molecular evolution, phylogenetic reconstruction became more reliable. However, our knowledge of the real process of molecular evolution is still limited. When enough large-sized data sets are analyzed, any subtle biases in statistical models can support incorrect topologies significantly because of the high signal-to-noise ratio. We propose a procedure to locate sequences in a multidimensional vector space (MVS), in which the geometry of the space is uniquely determined in such a way that the vectors of sequence evolution are orthogonal among different branches. In this paper, the MVS approach is developed to detect and remove biases in models of molecular evolution caused by unrecognized convergent evolution among lineages or unexpected patterns of substitutions. Biases in the estimated pairwise distances are identified as deviations (outliers) of sequence spatial vectors from the expected orthogonality. Modifications to the estimated distances are made by minimizing an index to quantify the deviations. In this way, it becomes possible to reconstruct the phylogenetic tree, taking account of possible biases in the model of molecular evolution. The efficacy of the modification procedure was verified by simulating evolution on various topologies with rate heterogeneity and convergent change. The phylogeny of placental mammals in previous analyses of large data sets has varied according to the genes being analyzed. Systematic deviations caused by convergent evolution were detected by our procedure in all representative data sets and were found to strongly affect the tree structure. However, the bias correction yielded a consistent topology among data sets. The existence of strong biases was validated by examining the sites of convergent evolution between the hedgehog and other species in mitochondrial data set. This convergent evolution explains why it has been difficult to determine the phylogenetic placement of the hedgehog in previous studies.

The third hypervariable (V3) region of the HIV-1 gp120 protein is responsible for many aspects of viral infectivity. The tertiary structure of the V3 loop seems to influence the coreceptor usage of the virus, which is an important determinant of HIV pathogenesis. Hence, the information about preferred conformations of the V3-loop region and its flexibility could be a crucial tool for understanding the mechanisms of progression from an initial infection to AIDS. Taking into account the uncertainty of the loop structure, we predicted the structural flexibility, diversity, and sequence fitness to the V3-loop structure for each of the sequences serially sampled during an asymptomatic period. Structural diversity correlated with sequence diversity. The predicted crown structure usage implied that structural flexibility depended on the patient and that the antigenic character of the virus might be almost uniform in a patient whose immune system is strong. Furthermore, the predicted structural ensemble suggested that toward the end of the asymptomatic period there was a change in the V3-loop structure or in the environment surrounding the V3 loop, possibly because of its proximity to the gp120 core.

In many biological systems, proteins interact with other organic molecules to produce indispensable functions, in which molecular recognition phenomena are essential. Proteins have kept or gained their functions during molecular evolution. Their functions seem to be flexible, and a few amino acid substitutions sometimes cause drastic changes in function. In order to monitor and predict such drastic changes in the early stages in target populations, we need to identify patterns of structural changes during molecular evolution causing decreases or increases in the binding affinity of protein complexes. In previous work, we developed a likelihood-based index to quantify the degree to which a sequence fits a given structure. This index was named the sequence-structure fitness (SSF) and is calculated empirically based on amino acid preferences and pairwise interactions in the structural environment present in template structures. In the present work, we used the SSF to develop an index to measure the binding affinity of protein-protein complexes defined as the log likelihood ratio, contrasting the fitness of the sequences to the structure of the complex and that of the uncomplexed proteins. We applied the developed index to the complexes formed between influenza A hemagglutinin (HA) and four antibodies. The antibody-antigen binding region of HA is under strong selection pressure by the host immune system. Hence, examination of the long-term adaptation of HA to the four antibodies could reveal the strategy of the molecular evolution of HA. Two antibodies cover the HA receptor-binding region, while the other two bind away from the receptor-binding region. By focusing on branches with a significant decline in binding ability, we could detect key amino acid replacements and investigate the mechanism via conditional probabilities. The contrast between the adaptations to the two types of antibodies suggests that the virus adapts to the immune system at the cost of structural change.

Background: A genealogy based on gene sequences within a species plays an essential role in the estimation of the character, structure, and evolutionary history of that species. Because intraspecific sequences are more closely related than interspecific ones, detailed information on the evolutionary process may be available by determining all the node sequences of trees and provide insight into functional constraints and adaptations. However, strong evolutionary correlations on a few lineages make this determination difficult as a whole, and the maximum parsimony (MP) method frequently allows a number of topologies with a same total branching length.