It is noted that the unprecedented dynamic globalization of trade and economic relations and the fourth industrial revolution cardinally transform the global distribution system of the world economy, accompanied by the growing impact of global challenges and risks, the failure to take into account the effects of which permanently reduces the efficiency of economic functioning and international trade. For developing countries affected by geopolitical challenges, the development of partnerships with countries that are recognized as global leaders in the world economy is essential in terms of national interests and the promotion of state sovereignty.The purpose of this paper is to characterize the impact of global risks on the formation and implementation of trade and economic policies of countries based on the methodological approaches of leading international economic institutions and organizations. Major global risks have identified rising / falling prices for assets, oil or gas, changes in the structure of trade and economic cooperation, terrorism, separatism, climate change, unemployment, income inequality, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, cyberattacks, etc.The following methods of scientific research were used to achieve the goal and to solve the tasks of the article: systematic structural analysis of economic processes and phenomena, method of quantitative and qualitative comparisons, tabular method of calculating the degree of influence.The scientific novelty of the results is to study the processes of formation and implementation of trade and economic policies of countries under the influence of exogenous factors on them. The influence of exogenous factors is characterized not only according to the sectoral classification (economic, geopolitical, technological, social and natural), but also taking into account the degree of influence of the factor (global challenges and global risks) on the environment.It is substantiated that in the conditions of globalization of the world economy, the threats receive a corresponding more serious nature. Therefore, government agencies need to develop new effective tools for their minimization in order to prevent negative effects and to implement more productive trade and economic cooperation with partner countries.
Under the conditions of deepening economic globalization and changes in regional integration unions functioning, formation and support of mutually beneficial and effective cooperation between countries is an important issue. Despite geographic proximity, cultural similarities and high efficiency of economic interactions, current state of the US-Canada trade cooperation worsens due to the ambitions of the USA as a global economic leader, alongside with unresolved trade disputes and increasing deficit of trade in goods and services. According to the analysis of the US-Canada external trade, it was concluded that due to long-lasting trade, the related supply chains have become highly integrated. The USA buys mostly raw materials and semi-finished products which are then used in
Economization of diplomacy and modernization of global trade policy within geopolitically unstable environmentWe have entered the world where extreme uncertainty is dominating and we are dealing with new diplomacy boundaries. The velocity and scale of changes are unique, this is a fact and it should not be resisted, it would only be in vain. We must accept a new reality and adapt to it prioritizing flexibility and sustainability. The uncertainty has turned into a rule. Events that were not supposed to ever happen, are happening one after another. This way, "black swans" (exceptional events) will turn into a majority. These theses started the speech of Josep Borrell, the Chief of European Diplomacy and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy at EU Ambassadors Annual Conference in Brussels on October 10, 2022 [502]. He highlighted that the old world does not exist anymore and pointed out four factors of the global crisis. Firstly, Ukraine. The full-scale war in Ukraine continues and the country efficiently and successfully resists the enemy; also, open nuclear threats of Putin and mass mobilization in the Russian Federation. Secondly, China. Deep US-China competition and tension escalation in Taiwan. Thirdly, global food and energy crises.Josep Borrell stated that they had been predicted but not as acute as they are now and he also provided some examples and forecast that the food crisis would aggravate the situation in many parts of the world. Somali and Horn of Africa are examples of how a climate change along with a war can cause a humanitarian crisis of such a scale which Europe cannot even think of. He said that the world is entering a perfect storm. Firstly, prices are rising. Secondly, central banks are increasing interest rates. The United States is the first to do so and others have to do the same, otherwise their currency will be devalued; therefore, they all hurry to raise interest rates as there is no other way since the capital will leave states. And fourthly, security situation.Dangerous megatrends and security issues in the European neighbourhood that are not limited to Ukraine only. For instance, the exacerbation in Northern Africa was not a surprise but how Russia is becoming its major cause is rather unexpected. It is rapidly
The interconnected global trading system has proved to be both vulnerable and resistant to crises, despite its asymmetries. The global trading system is constantly changing under the influence of such factors as the digitalization of economic processes and the growing number of nontariff measures to regulate trade volumes, including trade protection measures introduced by countries in order to ensure national economic interests etc. This article analyzes the impact of the tariff and nontariff instruments of export and import regulation on the asymmetries of the global trading system across countries and separate customs territories, depending on their presence in geographical regions or groups of countries associated with different levels of economic development. In order to quantify the possible asymmetries in the global trading system, analysis of variance and regression analysis are applied to explain the variance in the volume of global trade. The regression models for the dependence of export volumes on a number of trade indicators are fitted for developed, developing, and least-developed countries alongside the global trading system as a whole. The research showed that asymmetries of the global trading system exist on the global, regional and bilateral levels. In this research, two types of asymmetries are discussed: asymmetry directly and indirectly linked to international trade processes. To ensure economic development, the global trading system must be modernized so as to reduce the asymmetry. Accordingly, in order to increase effectiveness of the World Trade Organization, suggestions are proposed in regards to reconsidering trade-dispute settling, improving the monitoring of members’ obligations, increasing negotiation process efficiency and defining criteria for categorizing members according to their economic development.
It is indicated that one of the characteristic features of the modern trade system is the rapid growth of the number of regional trade agreements, which, in turn, causes asymmetry in the dominance of regional cross-border trade rules over multilateral ones. The main advantages for countries from participating in regional trade agreements have been identified: the possibility of excluding "vulnerable sectors" from the agreement; the ability to independently choose partners in negotiations; the use of the principle of "reciprocity" is more effective compared to the World Trade Organization, the possibility of forming the image of a regional leader; within the framework of such agreements, it is possible to carry out "experimental application" of certain new measures in the field of trade, which, if successfully tested, can be tried to be applied in general mode; the possibility of attracting more foreign investments by developing countries that are not regional leaders. After examining the degree of involvement of countries in concluding regional trade agreements for the presence of regional asymmetries, a significant difference was identified from the maximum involvement of the countries of the European region (on average 33.2 agreements per country) and the countries of Africa (2.7) and the Middle East (3.9). It is proposed that one of the vectors of the development of Ukraine's foreign economic policy should be the expansion of the scope of current and future regional trade agreements to the sphere of services, e-commerce and investments, given the potential, their compliance with the global trends of the trading system, as well as the ability of Ukraine to become a significant player in a number of markets for services and trade in digital products, taking into account the availability of an up-to-date legal framework on these issues. It was determined that 50% of Ukraine's commodity exports during 2016-2021 took place within the framework of the preferential regime provided for by key free trade agreements. According to the results of the proposed forecast of such exports for the period 2021-2023, using the method of time series analysis, it was confirmed that the corresponding dependence will only grow (export volumes within the framework of free trade agreements will grow by 3 percent annually, while total exports by 2%).
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
customersupport@researchsolutions.com
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.