This article characterizes a dynamic crude oil trade network of Eastern Europe and Eurasia using the network connectedness measure of Diebold and Yilmaz (2014, 2015) and asymmetric reaction of crude oil bilateral trade flow in response to the positive and negative changes of its key determinants using the nonlinear panel ARDL model. Results indicate the existence of large and time-varying spillovers with a considerable explanatory power among the crude oil trade flow volatility of Iran, Russia, US and Saudi Arabia in Eastern Europe and Eurasia crude oil trade network. The findings also show that crude oil trade flow of Eastern Europe and Eurasia experiences net volatility transmission to Iran, Russia and US respectively, whereas it is a net volatility receiver from Saudi Arabia. Also based on gravity models, the analysis confirms the existence of impact, reaction and adjustment asymmetry through different magnitude among network participants.
This paper presents an empirical investigation on the effect of exports of non-oil goods and services on economic growth in Iran over the period 1991-2011 using Vector Autoregressive method. We also analyze the existing causal relationships between total factor productivity and non-oil exports. The results show that total factor productivity has direct and significant relationship with non-oil exports in long-term, it means that if total factor productivity increases, non-oil exports also increases. The results of the survey also indicate that the existing shock on non-oil exports does not have any significant impact on total factor productivity but the incoming shock on total factor productivity reduces non-oil exports during the first period. It also increases non-oil exports during the first period to the fourth period and from the fifth period; it continues until it reduces to a small amount, remains in that amount and eventually disappears
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