The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (−9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth’s climate.

Amazonian forests are extraordinarily diverse, but the estimated species richness is very much debated. Here, we apply an ensemble of parametric estimators and a novel technique that includes conspecific spatial aggregation to an extended database of forest plots with up-to-date taxonomy. We show that the species abundance distribution of Amazonia is best approximated by a logseries with aggregated individuals, where aggregation increases with rarity. By averaging several methods to estimate total richness, we confirm that over 15,000 tree species are expected to occur in Amazonia. We also show that using ten times the number of plots would result in an increase to just ~50% of those 15,000 estimated species. To get a more complete sample of all tree species, rigorous field campaigns may be needed but the number of trees in Amazonia will remain an estimate for years to come.

Tropical forests are known for their high diversity. Yet, forest patches do occur in the tropics where a single tree species is dominant. Such “monodominant” forests are known from all of the main tropical regions. For Amazonia, we sampled the occurrence of monodominance in a massive, basin-wide database of forest-inventory plots from the Amazon Tree Diversity Network (ATDN). Utilizing a simple defining metric of at least half of the trees ≥ 10 cm diameter belonging to one species, we found only a few occurrences of monodominance in Amazonia, and the phenomenon was not significantly linked to previously hypothesized life history traits such wood density, seed mass, ectomycorrhizal associations, or Rhizobium nodulation. In our analysis, coppicing (the formation of sprouts at the base of the tree or on roots) was the only trait significantly linked to monodominance. While at specific locales coppicing or ectomycorrhizal associations may confer a considerable advantage to a tree species and lead to its monodominance, very few species have these traits. Mining of the ATDN dataset suggests that monodominance is quite rare in Amazonia, and may be linked primarily to edaphic factors.

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The intensity and frequency of severe droughts in the Amazon region have increased in the recent decades. These extreme events are associated with changes in forest dynamics, biomass and floristic composition. However, most studies of drought response have focused on upland forests with deep water tables, which may be especially sensitive to drought. Palms, which tend to dominate the less well‐drained soils, have also been neglected. The relative neglect of shallow water tables and palms is a significant concern for our understanding of tropical drought impacts, especially as one‐third of Amazon forests grow on shallow water tables (<5 m deep). We evaluated the drought response of palms and trees in forests distributed over a 600 km transect in central‐southern Amazonia, where the landscape is dominated by shallow water table forests (SWTF). We compared vegetation dynamics before and following the 2015–2016 El Nino drought, the hottest and driest on record for the region (−214 mm of cumulative water deficit). We observed no change in stand mortality rates and no biomass loss in response to drought in these forests. Instead, we observed an increase in recruitment rates, which doubled to 6.78% year‐1 ± 4.40 (M ± SD) during 2015–2016 for palms and increased by half for trees (to 2.92% year‐1 ± 1.21), compared to rates in the pre‐El‐Nino interval. Within these SWTF, mortality and recruitment rates varied as a function of climatic drought intensity and water table depth for both palms and trees, with mortality being greatest in climatically and hydrologically wetter environments and recruitment greatest in drier environments. Across our transect, there was a significant increase over time in tree biomass. Synthesis. Our results indicate that forests growing over shallow water tables—relatively under‐studied vegetation that nonetheless occupies one‐third of Amazon forests—are remarkably resistant to drought. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that local hydrology and its interactions with climate strongly constrain forest drought effects, and has implications for climate change feedbacks. This work enhances our understanding of integrated drought effects on tropical forest dynamics and highlights the importance of incorporating neglected forest types into both the modelling of forest climate responses and into public decisions about priorities for conservation.