Thermodynamic parameters are reported for hairpin formation in 1 M NaCl by RNA sequences of the type GGCXUAAUYGCC, where XY is the set of 10 possible mismatch base pairs. A nearest neighbor analysis of the data indicates the free energy for loop formation at 37 C varies from 2.9 to 4.5 kcal/mol. Thermodynamic parameters are also reported for hairpin formation by RNA sequences of the type GGXGUAAUAYCC (where XY are CG, GC, AU, UA, GU, and UG), with the common naturally occurring GA first mismatch (45% of small and large subunit rRNA loops of six). These results allow the development of a model to predict the stability of RNA hairpin loops. The model includes the size of the loop, the identity of the closing base pair, the free energy increment (delta G zero 37MM) for interaction of the closing base pair with the first mismatch, and an additional stabilization term for GA and UU first mismatches. delta G zero 37L(n) = delta G zero 37i(n) + delta G zero 37MM + 0.4 (if closed by AU or UA) -0.7 (if first mismatch is GA or UU). Here delta G zero 37i(n) is the free energy for initiating a loop of n nucleotides. delta G zero 37i(n) for n = 4-9 is 4.9, 4.4, 5.0, 5.0, 5.1, and 5.2 kcal/mol, respectively. The delta G zero 37MM is derived from measurements of model duplexes with terminal mismatches. The model gives good agreement when tested against four naturally occurring hairpin sequences.

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