Abstract. The 2.5 km convection-permitting (CP) ensemble AROME-EPS (Applications of Research to Operations at Mesoscale -Ensemble Prediction System) is evaluated by comparison with the regional 11 km ensemble ALADIN-LAEF (Aire Limitée Adaption dynamique Développement InterNational -Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting) to show whether a benefit is provided by a CP EPS. The evaluation focuses on the abilities of the ensembles to quantitatively predict precipitation during a 3-month convective summer period over areas consisting of mountains and lowlands. The statistical verification uses surface observations and 1 km × 1 km precipitation analyses, and the verification scores involve state-of-the-art statistical measures for deterministic and probabilistic forecasts as well as novel spatial verification methods. The results show that the convectionpermitting ensemble with higher-resolution AROME-EPS outperforms its mesoscale counterpart ALADIN-LAEF for precipitation forecasts. The positive impact is larger for the mountainous areas than for the lowlands. In particular, the diurnal precipitation cycle is improved in AROME-EPS, which leads to a significant improvement of scores at the concerned times of day (up to approximately one-third of the scored verification measure). Moreover, there are advantages for higher precipitation thresholds at small spatial scales, which are due to the improved simulation of the spatial structure of precipitation.

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Accurate spatial and temporal forecasts of fog and low cloud occurrence are still a challenging research topic due to the complexity of its physics. In the nowcasting range, observation-based techniques are often superior to numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and provide useful guidelines for operational forecasters. This article proposes a low stratus nowcasting scheme which merges station measurements, satellite data, a nowcasting technique and NWP data at a very high horizontal resolution (1 km). Case studies and a comprehensive validation over Austria reveal that the proposed approach of parameterizing sub-inversion cloudiness adds value especially in complex terrain and even for longer lead times due to the dynamic design of the method.

Abstract.A new approach to downscaling soil moisture forecasts from the seasonal ensemble prediction forecasting system of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) is presented in this study. Soil moisture forecasts from this system are rarely used nowadays, although they could provide valuable information. Weaknesses of the model soil scheme in forecasting soil water content and the low spatial resolution of the seasonal forecasts are the main reason why soil water information has hardly been used so far. The basic idea to overcome some of these problems is the application of additional information provided by two satellite sensors (ASCAT and Envisat ASAR) to improve the forecast quality, mainly to reduce model bias and increase the spatial resolution. Seasonal forecasts from 2011 and 2012 have been compared to in situ measurement sites in Kenya to test this two-step approach. Results confirm that this downscaling is adding skill to the seasonal forecasts.

<p>The Thaya is a trans-national river basin that is situated in the Czech Republic and Austria. Different human activities in the basin and multiple water uses increase the water demand. This increase, combined with the recent droughts events in 2017 and 2018, has recently resulted in reconsidering the water management strategies for future climates. This contribution aims to evaluate the effect of climate change on the water balance of the Thaya. The aim is to apply two different hydrological models in an identical setting (the same model inputs, scenarios, and regional and water use data) and to identify water availability and its change under various climate and water use scenarios. The assessments compare BILAN and TUWmodel hydrological models coupled with the WATERRES water use module and a large sample of climate projections (the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models), which represent various socioeconomic pathways combined with projections of possible changes in water use. The results will demonstrate an insight into how the water balance in different parts of the Thaya basin has changed in the past and what are the possible effects of climate change on these water resources in the future.</p>