No abstract

The ability of an organization to respond to a crisis with agility is vital for business leaders to maintain business continuity. Our paper examined how business owners responded to the challenges caused by the pandemic. Using online surveys for data collection, we investigated a critical agility issue of supply chain risks through understanding the interrelationship of various business capability factors. Partial least squares path modeling (PLS-PM) was applied to a sample of 220 participants who were owners of micro, small, and medium businesses in Western Australia. The findings showed that the businesses’ efficiency, financial strength, and flexibility in sourcing affected the businesses’ supply chain risks negatively. More support for labor productivity, asset utilization, waste elimination, financial reserves, portfolio diversification, and credit access needs to be introduced to enhance the resilience of the business supply chain. This paper is novel, as we used the data collected in Western Australia, where the SMEs were still affected by the global supply chain disruption but lacked protracted lockdowns, as had occurred nationally and globally during the COVID-19 period.

This study examines the predictive power of implied volatility smirk to forecast foreign exchange (FX) return. The volatility smirk contains critical information, especially when the market experiences negative news. The Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, Euro, and British pound options traded in the opening, midday and closing periods of the trading day are selected to estimate the currency smirk. Research results reveal that the currency smirk outperforms in forecasting FX returns. In addition, the steeper slope in the middle of the trading day suggests that the predictive power of currency smirk in the midday period is higher compared to the opening and closing periods. However, currency smirks’ predictability lasts for a short period, as the FX market is highly adept at incorporating the vital information embedded in the currency smirk. These findings imply that the currency smirk is distinctive for forecasting very short-term FX fluctuations, and the day- or overnight FX traders can use its uniqueness to profit from quick price swings in the 24-hour global FX market.

This study introduces the intraday implied volatility (IV) for pricing the Australian dollar (AUD) options. The IV is estimated using the at-the-money one-month, two-month, and three-month maturity AUD options traded in the opening, midday, and closing period of a trading day. The Mincer-Zarnowitz regression test evaluates the predictive power of IV to forecast the foreign exchange volatility for the within-week, one-week, and one-month horizon. The mean absolute error, mean squared error, and root mean squared error measures are employed to assess the performance of IV in estimating the price of currency options for the within-week, one-week, and one-month horizon. This study reveals four critical findings. First, a three-month maturity IV does not contain vital information for pricing options. Second, IV incorporated information is not relevant to compute the value of options for a horizon of less than a week. Third, IV in the closing period of Monday or Tuesday subsumes most of the essential information to estimate options price. Fourth, the shorter (longer) maturity IV provides critical information to price options for the shorter (longer) horizon. The intraday IV is a new dimension of unobservable volatility in accurately pricing currency options for researchers and practitioners.