BackgroundOral cancer is a potentially fatal disease, especially when diagnosed in advanced stages. In Brazil, the primary health care (PHC) system is responsible for promoting oral health in order to prevent oral diseases. However, there is insufficient evidence to assess whether actions of the PHC system have some effect on the morbidity and mortality from oral cancer. The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of PHC structure and work processes on the incidence and mortality rates of oral cancer after adjusting for contextual variables.MethodsAn ecological, longitudinal and analytical study was carried out. Data were obtained from different secondary data sources, including three surveys that were nationally representative of Brazilian PHC and carried out over the course of 10 years (2002–2012). Data were aggregated at the state level at different times. Oral cancer incidence and mortality rates, standardized by age and gender, served as the dependent variables. Covariables (sociodemographic, structure of basic health units, and work process in oral health) were entered in the regression models using a hierarchical approach based on a theoretical model. Analysis of mixed effects with random intercept model was also conducted (alpha = 5%).ResultsThe oral cancer incidence rate was positively association with the proportion of of adults over 60 years (β = 0.59; p = 0.010) and adult smokers (β = 0.29; p = 0.010). The oral cancer related mortality rate was positively associated with the proportion of of adults over 60 years (β = 0.24; p < 0.001) and the performance of preventative and diagnostic actions for oral cancer (β = 0.02; p = 0.002). Mortality was inversely associated with the coverage of primary care teams (β = −0.01; p < 0.006) and PHC financing (β = −0.52−9; p = 0.014).ConclusionsIn Brazil, the PHC structure and work processes have been shown to help reduce the mortality rate of oral cancer, but not the incidence rate of the disease. We recommend expanding investments in PHC in order to prevent oral cancer related deaths.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12885-017-3700-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

the proposed classification grouped similar municipalities regarding influential factors in health management, which allowed the identification of comparable groups of municipalities, setting up a consistent alternative to performance evaluation studies.

In January 2020 China reported to the World Health Organization an outbreak of pneumonia of undetermined origin in the city of Wuhan, Hubei. In January 30, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak of COVID-19 as a Public Health Emergency of International Interest (PHEI). Objectives: The aim of this study is to assess the impact of a COVID-19 epidemic in the metropolitan region of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Methods: We used a generalized SEIR (Susceptibles, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model, with additional Hospitalized variables (SEIHR model) and age-stratified structure to analyze the expected time evolution during the onset of the epidemic in the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo. The model allows to determine the evolution of the number of cases, the number of patients admitted to hospitals and deaths caused by COVID-19. In order to investigate the sensibility of our results with respect to parameter estimation errors we performed Monte Carlo analysis with 100 000 simulations by sampling parameter values from an uniform distribution in the confidence interval. Results: We estimate 1 368 (IQR: 880, 2 407) cases, 301 (22%) in older people (more than 60 years), 81 (50, 143) hospitalizations, and 14 (9, 26) deaths in the first 30 days, and 38 583 (IQR: 16 698, 113, 163) cases, 8 427 (21.8%) in older people (more than 60 years), 2181 (914, 6392) hospitalizations, and 397(166, 1205) deaths in the first 60 days. Limitations: We supposed a constant transmission probability Pc among different age-groups, and that every severe and critic case will be hospitalized, as well as that the detection capacity in all the primary healthcare services does not change during the outbreak. Conclusion: Supposing the reported parameters in the literature apply in the city of Sao Paulo, our study shows that it is expected that the impact of a COVID-19 outbreak will be important, requiring special planning from the authorities. This is the first study for a major metropolitan center in the south hemisphere, and we believe it can provide policymakers with a prognosis of the burden of the pandemic not only in Brazil, but also in other tropical zones, allowing to estimate total cases, hospitalization, and deaths, in support to the management of the public health emergence caused by COVID-19.

BackgroundAlthough the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic ceased to be a public health emergency by the end of 2016, studies to improve knowledge about this emerging disease are still needed, especially those investigating a causal relationship between ZIKV in pregnant women and microcephaly in neonates. However, there are still many challenges in describing the relationship between ZIKV and microcephaly. The few studies focusing on the epidemiological profile of ZIKV and its changes over time are largely limited to systematic reviews of case reports and dispersal mapping of ZIKV spread over time without quantitative methods to analyze patterns and their covariates. Since Brazil has been at the epicenter of the ZIKV epidemic, this study examines the geospatial association between ZIKV and microcephaly in Brazil.MethodsOur study is categorized as a retrospective, ecological study based on secondary databases. Data were obtained from January to December 2016, from the following data sources: Brazilian System for Epidemiological Surveillance, Disease Notification System, System for Specialized Management Support, and Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Data were aggregated by municipality. Incidence rates were estimated per 100,000 inhabitants. Analyses consisted of mapping the aggregated incidence rates of ZIKV and microcephaly, followed by a Getis-Ord-Gi spatial cluster analysis and a Bivariate Local Moran’s I analysis.ResultsThe incidence of ZIKV cases is changing the virus’s spatial pattern, shifting from Brazil’s Northeast region to the Midwest and North regions. The number of municipalities in clusters of microcephaly incidence is also shifting from the Northeast region to the Midwest and North, after a time lag is considered. Our findings suggest an increase in microcephaly incidence in the Midwest and North regions, associated with high levels of ZIKV infection months before.ConclusionThe greatest burden of microcephaly shifted from the Northeast to other Brazilian regions at the beginning of 2016. Brazil’s Midwest region experienced an increase in microcephaly incidence associated with ZIKV incidence. This finding highlights an association between an increase in ZIKV infection with a rise in microcephaly cases after approximately three months.

BackgroundUnequal distribution of emergency care services is a critical barrier to be overcome to assure access to emergency and surgical care. Considering this context it was objective of the present work analyze geographic access barriers to emergency care services in Brazil. A secondary aim of the study is to define possible roles to be assumed by small hospitals in the Brazilian healthcare network to overcome geographic access challenges.MethodsThe present work can be classified as a cross-sectional ecological study. To carry out the present study, data of all 5843 Brazilian hospitals were categorized among high complexity centers and small hospitals. The geographical access barriers were identified through the use of two-step floating catchment area method. Once concluded the previous step an evaluation using the Getis-Ord-Gi method was performed to identify spatial clusters of municipalities with limited access to high complexity centers but well covered by well-equipped small hospitals.ResultsThe analysis of accessibility index of high complexity centers highlighted large portions of the country with nearly zero hospital beds by inhabitant. In contrast, it was possible observe a group of 1595 municipalities with high accessibility to small hospitals, simultaneously with a low coverage of high complexity centers. Among the 1595 municipalities with good accessibility to small hospitals, 74% (1183) were covered by small hospitals with at least 60% of minimum emergency service requirements. The spatial clusters analysis aggregated 589 municipalities with high values related to minimum emergency service requirements. Small hospitals in these 589 cities could promote the equity in access to emergency services benefiting more than eight million people.ConclusionsThere is a spatial disequilibrium within the country with prominent gaps in the health care network for emergency services. Taking this challenge into consideration, small hospitals could be a possible solution and foster equity in access to emergency and surgical care. However more investments in are necessary to improve small hospitals capabilities to fill this gap.