Enedis (France's main electricity DSO) and Mines Paris Tech are working on a new method called MOSAIC that aims at assessing the impact of long term local development projects on the electrical grid. The MOSAIC method uses a bottom-up simulation tool able to determine the current and future consumption and production load curve of an area. The consumption and production simulators are based on a multi-level data model that makes it possible to run a simulation even if some data are missing. The simulation parameters are calibrated by comparing the simulated load curves with observations on MV feeders (for the consumption simulator) and on 100 renewable energy producers (PV and WP). Once the simulators are calibrated for the current situation, the load curve of each development scenario of the area is estimated (the evolution scenarios are proposed by the local government, based on infeed growing, building projects …). Enedis and Mines Paris Tech are now working on linking the load curve simulators with more traditional electrical study tools. From the simulated load curve, we estimate the most likely maximal power of the grid infrastructures and use these values in the load flow tool called ERABLE to evaluate the impact of the scenarios on the grid. Initial tests were successful and this method will be further developed in 2017 on ten experimentation projects in France. Each project will help to develop new functionalities such as integrating Demand Response or electrical vehicle infrastructures.

This paper presents a novel approach of an electric load curve simulator using a set of grey box models that results to an efficient trade-off between complete and complex physical models and fast simplified statistical models. The input parameters are macroscopic data coming from large databases such as national census, DSO's client information and meteorological data such as temperature or irradiation data. The problem of matching between the different databases is investigated to assess comparable load curves. Validation is performed using load measurements at the medium voltage level. Once the model is calibrated it can be turned into a good prediction tool useful for planning studies since it permits easily to incorporate the evolution of usages, the characteristics of consumption devices, as well as the evolution of the building's characteristics.

No abstract

In the last decades, renewable energy sources have been increasing their shares in the world energy market. In addition to the ecological benefits, this trend can have adjunct benefits, for example for distribution system operators: a gain in their grid sizing. Indeed, installation of decentralized production, when used in a selfconsumption approach, can lead to reduction of the consumption peaks. This work is willing to quantify what grid sizing reduction a distribution system operator can expect, knowing the renewable energies penetration rate on a MV feeder. To do so, a description of the actual sizing strategy is first described. Estimation of electricity demand is performed using a bottom-up simulation method while photovoltaics and wind power production are evaluated with reanalysis data coupled with a new method to inject variability to the smooth curves. This procedure leads to a new sizing power which can be used, guaranteeing an equivalent quality of supply for consumers. For the tested MV feeders, a maximum reduction of about 4 % of the sizing power is observed. Lastly, an analysis of the under-sizing risk is carried out, characterizing the error in the new sizing power estimation with the number of scenarios taken into account.