The large integration of variable energy resources is expected to shift a large part of the energy exchanges closer to real-time, where more accurate forecasts are available. In this context, the short-term electricity markets and in particular the intraday market are considered a suitable trading floor for these exchanges to occur. A key component for the successful renewable energy sources integration is the usage of energy storage. In this paper, we propose a novel modelling framework for the strategic participation of energy storage in the European continuous intraday market where exchanges occur through a centralized order book. The goal of the storage device operator is the maximization of the profits received over the entire trading horizon, while taking into account the operational constraints of the unit. The sequential decision-making problem of trading in the intraday market is modelled as a Markov Decision Process. An asynchronous version of the fitted Q iteration algorithm is chosen for solving this problem due to its sample efficiency. The large and variable number of the existing orders in the order book motivates the use of high-level actions and an alternative state representation. Historical data are used for the generation of a large number of artificial trajectories in order to address exploration issues during the learning process. The resulting policy is back-tested and compared against a number of benchmark strategies. Finally, the impact of the storage characteristics on the total revenues collected in the intraday market is evaluated.
Retailers and major consumers of electricity generally purchase an important percentage of their estimated electricity needs years ahead in the forward market. This long-term electricity procurement task consists of determining when to buy electricity so that the resulting energy cost is minimised, and the forecast consumption is covered. In this scientific article, the focus is set on a yearly base load product from the Belgian forward market, named calendar (CAL), which is tradable up to three years ahead of the delivery period. This research paper introduces a novel algorithm providing recommendations to either buy electricity now or wait for a future opportunity based on the history of CAL prices. This algorithm relies on deep learning forecasting techniques and on an indicator quantifying the deviation from a perfectly uniform reference procurement policy. On average, the proposed approach surpasses the benchmark procurement policies considered and achieves a reduction in costs of 1.65% with respect to the perfectly uniform reference procurement policy achieving the mean electricity price. Moreover, in addition to automating the complex electricity procurement task, this algorithm demonstrates more consistent results throughout the years. Eventually, the generality of the solution presented makes it well suited for solving other commodity procurement problems.
Classical reinforcement learning (RL) techniques are generally concerned with the design of decision-making policies driven by the maximisation of the expected outcome. Nevertheless, this approach does not take into consideration the potential risk associated with the actions taken, which may be critical in certain applications. To address that issue, the present research work introduces a novel methodology based on distributional RL to derive sequential decision-making policies that are sensitive to the risk, the latter being modelled by the tail of the return probability distribution. The core idea is to replace the Q function generally standing at the core of learning schemes in RL by another function, taking into account both the expected return and the risk. Named the risk-based utility function U, it can be extracted from the random return distribution Z naturally learnt by any distributional RL algorithm. This enables the spanning of the complete potential trade-off between risk minimisation and expected return maximisation, in contrast to fully risk-averse methodologies. Fundamentally, this research yields a truly practical and accessible solution for learning risk-sensitive policies with minimal modification to the distributional RL algorithm, with an emphasis on the interpretability of the resulting decision-making process.
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