Highlights The General Lake Model (GLM) is stress tested against 32 globally distributed lakes. There was low correlation between input data uncertainty and model performance. Model performance related to lake-morphometry, light extinction and flow regime; deep, clear lakes with high residence times had the lowest model error.
Abstract:We report on the calibration of the one-dimensional hydrodynamic lake model Dynamic Reservoir Simulation Model to simulate the water temperature conditions of the pre-alpine Lake Ammersee (southeast Germany) that is a representative of deep and large lakes in this region. Special focus is given to the calibration in order to reproduce the correct thermal distribution and stratification including the time of onset and duration of summer stratification. To ensure the application of the model to investigate the impact of climate change on lakes, an analysis of the model sensitivity under stepwise modification of meteorological input parameters (air temperature, wind speed, precipitation, global radiation, cloud cover, vapour pressure and tributary water temperature) was conducted. The total mean error of the calibration results is À0.23 C, the root mean square error amounts to 1.012 C. All characteristics of the annual stratification cycle were reproduced accurately by the model. Additionally, the simulated deviations for all applied modifications of the input parameters for the sensitivity analysis can be differentiated in the high temporal resolution of monthly values for each specific depth. The smallest applied alteration to each modified input parameter caused a maximum deviation in the simulation results of at least 0.26 C. The most sensitive reactions of the model can be observed through modifications of the input parameters air temperature and wind speed. Hence, the results show that further investigations at Lake Ammersee, such as coupling the hydrodynamic model with chemo-dynamic models to assess the impact of changing climate on biochemical conditions within lakes, can be carried out using Dynamic Reservoir Simulation Model.
Abstract. Numerical modeling provides an opportunity to quantify
the reaction of lakes to alterations in their environment, such as changes
in climate or hydrological conditions. The one-dimensional hydrodynamic
General Lake Model (GLM) is an open-source software and widely used within
the limnological research community. Nevertheless, no interface to
process the input data and run the model and no tools for an automatic
parameter calibration yet exist. Hence, we developed glmGUI, a graphical user
interface (GUI) including a toolbox for an autocalibration, parameter
sensitivity analysis, and several plot options. The tool is provided as a
package for the freely available scientific code language R. The model
parameters can be analyzed and calibrated for the simulation output
variables water temperature and lake level. The glmGUI package is tested for two sites (lake Ammersee, Germany, and lake
Baratz, Italy), distinguishing size, mixing regime, hydrology of the
catchment area (i.e., the number of inflows and their runoff seasonality),
and climatic conditions. A robust simulation of water temperature for both
lakes (Ammersee: RMSE =1.17 ∘C; Baratz: RMSE
=1.30 ∘C) is achieved by a quick automatic calibration. The
quality of a water temperature simulation can be assessed immediately by
means of a difference plot provided by glmGUI, which displays the distribution of
the spatial (vertical) and temporal deviations. The calibration of the lake-level simulations of lake Ammersee for multiple hydrological inputs
including also unknown inflows yielded a satisfactory model fit (RMSE =0.20 m). This shows that GLM can also be used to estimate the water balance
of lakes correctly. The tools provided by glmGUI enable a less time-consuming and
simplified parameter optimization within the calibration process. Due to
this, i.e., the free availability and the implementation in a GUI, the presented R
package expands the application of GLM to a broader field of lake modeling
research and even beyond limnological experts.
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