The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has long been an influential climate and weather driver for many regions. Many studies have examined the variability of the phases of ENSO, leading to discovery of a separate mode of El Nino dubbed the El Nino Modoki, featuring a tripole Walker circulation. However, few studies have examined the variability of El Nino with Modoki separated from regular El Nino events. The goals of this study were to demonstrate that the El Nino signal was stronger separate from Modoki (thus leading to higher predictability), and to examine the effect of the Modoki on both a national and regional level, showing the connection between other teleconnections such as the Pacific North American teleconnection (PNA), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and the North American Oscillation teleconnection (NAO). Using NCEP/NCAR composites, conventional El Nino events were found to have a stronger signal, with persistent features being easier to identify. Similarly, the Modoki showed a pattern thatmilar but different to the regular El Nino. Using New York State for the area of regional analysis, all ENSO phases were found to modify the effect of the PNA, but the effect was different depending on location. Both of these results indicate that it is possible to generate a clearer picture of the impacts of ENSO by properly classifying these events

The overall purpose of this paper is to post-evaluate the predictability of Hurricane Florence using the Advanced Research Weather Research Forecast (WRF) (ARW) version of a mesoscale model. This was performed over the period from 0000 UTC 13 September 2018 through 0000 UTC 18 September 2018. The WRF ARW core resolution used here was the 27-km grid spacing chosen to in order to balance finer resolution against in house processing time and storage. The large-scale analysis showed that a change in the Northern Hemisphere flow regime, especially the flow in the western part of the Northern Hemisphere may have contributed partly to the reduced forward speed of the tropical cyclone. In order to measure the predictability of a system, we will use different convective and boundary layer schemes initialized from the same conditions. The results demonstrated that the sign of the local IRE tendency was similar to that of the Northern Hemisphere Integrated Enstrophy. The results also showed that when the boundary layer, convective, and cloud microphysical schemes of the model were varied, the areal coverage of heavy precipitation of Florence was under-forecast by approximately 10% or more, and the heaviest amounts were under-forecast by an average of about 20%.