We report on Bayesian parameter estimation of the mass and equatorial radius of the millisecond pulsar PSRJ0030 +0451, conditional on pulse-profile modeling of Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer X-ray spectraltiming event data. We perform relativistic ray-tracing of thermal emission from hot regions of the pulsar's surface. We assume two distinct hot regions based on two clear pulsed components in the phase-folded pulse-profile data; we explore a number of forms (morphologies and topologies) for each hot region, inferring their parameters in addition to the stellar mass and radius. For the family of models considered, the evidence (prior predictive probability of the data) strongly favors a model that permits both hot regions to be located in the same rotational hemisphere. Models wherein both hot regions are assumed to be simply connected circular single-temperature spots, in particular those where the spots are assumed to be reflection-symmetric with respect to the stellar origin, are strongly disfavored. For the inferred configuration, one hot region subtends an angular extent of only a few degrees (in spherical coordinates with origin at the stellar center) and we are insensitive to other structural details; the second hot region is far more azimuthally extended in the form of a narrow arc, thus requiring a larger number of parameters to describe. The inferred mass M and equatorial radius R eq are, respectively,-+ eq 2 0.010 0.008 is more tightly constrained; the credible interval bounds reported here are approximately the 16% and 84% quantiles in marginal posterior mass.

We report on Bayesian estimation of the radius, mass, and hot surface regions of the massive millisecond pulsar PSR J0740+6620, conditional on pulse-profile modeling of Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer X-ray Timing Instrument event data. We condition on informative pulsar mass, distance, and orbital inclination priors derived from the joint North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves and Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment/Pulsar wideband radio timing measurements of Fonseca et al. We use XMM-Newton European Photon Imaging Camera spectroscopic event data to inform our X-ray likelihood function. The prior support of the pulsar radius is truncated at 16 km to ensure coverage of current dense matter models. We assume conservative priors on instrument calibration uncertainty. We constrain the equatorial radius and mass of PSR J0740+6620 to be -+ 10 0.06 0.05 ( [ ])for each hot region. All software for the X-ray modeling framework is open-source and all data, model, and sample information is publicly available, including analysis notebooks and model modules in the Python language. Our marginal likelihood function of mass and equatorial radius is proportional to the marginal joint posterior density of those parameters (within the prior support) and can thus be computed from the posterior samples. Unified Astronomy Thesaurus concepts: Millisecond pulsars (1062); Rotation powered pulsars (1408); Pulsars (1306); Radio pulsars (1353); X-ray astronomy (1810); Neutron stars (1108)

Both the mass and radius of the millisecond pulsar PSR J0030+0451 have been inferred via pulseprofile modeling of X-ray data obtained by NASA's NICER mission. In this Letter we study the implications of the mass-radius inference reported for this source by Riley et al. (2019) for the dense matter equation of state (EOS), in the context of prior information from nuclear physics at low densities. Using a Bayesian framework we infer central densities and EOS properties for two choices of highdensity extensions: a piecewise-polytropic model and a model based on assumptions of the speed of sound in dense matter. Around nuclear saturation density these extensions are matched to an EOS uncertainty band obtained from calculations based on chiral effective field theory interactions, which provide a realistic description of atomic nuclei as well as empirical nuclear matter properties within uncertainties. We further constrain EOS expectations with input from the current highest measured pulsar mass; together, these constraints offer a narrow Bayesian prior informed by theory as well as laboratory and astrophysical measurements. The NICER mass-radius likelihood function derived by Riley et al. (2019) using pulse-profile modeling is consistent with the highest-density region of this prior. The present relatively large uncertainties on mass and radius for PSR J0030+0451 offer, however, only a weak posterior information gain over the prior. We explore the sensitivity to the inferred geometry of the heated regions that give rise to the pulsed emission, and find a small increase in posterior gain for an alternative (but less preferred) model. Lastly, we investigate the hypothetical scenario of increasing the NICER exposure time for PSR J0030+0451.